Heads up. Treat this board with suspicion: 27 of 40 total picks are on the Over. A model that disagrees with the market in one direction all week is usually miscalibrated rather than right.

College Football Picks

2026 · Week 6 · updated 10 Oct 2026, 17:44 UTC
Bets
119
82 strong
Staked
294.15u
fractional Kelly
Expected
+49.53u
if the model is right
Median edge
8.0%
over the no-vig price

Recommended bets

What these numbers mean
Tier
How much conviction is behind the bet — strong, play or lean, set by the size of the edge.
Bet
The side and number to take, at the price and book shown beside it.
Model
The model's probability this bet wins. Already shrunk toward the market price according to how well-covered the two teams are, so a thinly-rated game shows a number close to the market's.
Market
The same probability implied by the sportsbook price, with the bookmaker's margin removed — what the market really thinks, rather than what the posted odds say.
Edge
Model minus Market: how much better the model rates this bet than the price implies. Anything under a couple of points is noise.
Pts
The same disagreement measured in points rather than probability — how far the model's number sits from the market's on the spread or total.
Units
Suggested stake, where one unit is 1% of bankroll. Sized by quarter-Kelly and capped, so a large edge on an uncertain game still gets a small bet.
119 bets
strong
South Florida @ UTSA
Over 49.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model75.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+25.9%
Pts+13.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
USC @ Penn State
Over 54.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model68.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+18.2%
Pts+7.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 8% toward market (confidence 0.92)

strong
Duke @ Georgia Tech
Over 45
-110 at Bovada
Model68.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+18.1%
Pts+9.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 30% toward market (confidence 0.70); push chance 2.3%

strong
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -3.5
-110 at Bovada
Model68.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+18.1%
Pts+12.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

strong
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall
Over 57.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model68.6%
Market50.7%
Edge+17.8%
Pts+9.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Mississippi @ Vanderbilt
Over 54
-110 at Bovada
Model68.4%
Market50.7%
Edge+17.7%
Pts+8.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75); push chance 2.4%

strong
Illinois @ Michigan State
Over 48
-110 at Bovada
Model68.3%
Market50.7%
Edge+17.6%
Pts+9.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71); push chance 2.3%

strong
Tennessee @ Arkansas
Over 51.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model66.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+16.9%
Pts+8.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Buffalo @ Toledo
Under 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model67.4%
Market50.7%
Edge+16.6%
Pts+8.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 32% toward market (confidence 0.68)

strong
James Madison @ Georgia Southern
James Madison -7.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model66.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+16.2%
Pts+10.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Iowa @ Washington
Iowa +3
-110 at DraftKings
Model65.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+15.1%
Pts+8.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76); push chance 2.2%

strong
Houston @ Kansas State
Over 54
-110 at Bovada
Model65.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+15.1%
Pts+8.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 33% toward market (confidence 0.67); push chance 2.4%

strong
Iowa @ Washington
Iowa ML
+130 at DraftKings
Model58.4%
Market43.3%
Edge+15.1%
Pts+8.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

strong
Florida State @ Louisville
Over 60.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+14.8%
Pts+6.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

strong
Minnesota @ Purdue
Over 49.5
-110 at Bovada
Model64.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+14.6%
Pts+10.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

strong
UCLA @ Oregon
Over 57.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+14.2%
Pts+6.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Buffalo @ Toledo
Toledo -18.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.7%
Market50.6%
Edge+14.1%
Pts+8.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 32% toward market (confidence 0.68)

strong
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh ML
-175 at DraftKings
Model76.4%
Market62.6%
Edge+13.8%
Pts+11.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

strong
UAB @ Memphis
Over 54.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+13.7%
Pts+6.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
Georgia @ Alabama
Over 51.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.4%
Market50.7%
Edge+13.6%
Pts+5.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 11% toward market (confidence 0.89)

strong
Kansas @ Utah
Utah -15.5
-110 at Bovada
Model63.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+13.4%
Pts+6.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84)

strong
Mississippi @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt ML
+305 at Bovada
Model35.7%
Market22.5%
Edge+13.2%
Pts+8.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Texas vs Oklahoma
Under 41.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.8%
Market50.7%
Edge+13.1%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 5% toward market (confidence 0.95)

strong
Texas vs Oklahoma
Texas -7.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+13.0%
Pts+5.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 5% toward market (confidence 0.95)

strong
Connecticut @ Temple
Over 55.5
-110 at Bovada
Model62.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+12.6%
Pts+6.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Indiana @ Nebraska
Over 48
-110 at Bovada
Model63.3%
Market50.7%
Edge+12.6%
Pts+5.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84); push chance 2.7%

strong
Boise State @ Fresno State
Fresno State ML
+240 at DraftKings
Model40.9%
Market28.6%
Edge+12.3%
Pts+6.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83)

strong
Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts
Massachusetts +6.5
-110 at Bovada
Model62.4%
Market50.6%
Edge+11.8%
Pts+8.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

strong
Duke @ Georgia Tech
Duke -4.5
-110 at Bovada
Model61.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.8%
Pts+7.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 30% toward market (confidence 0.70)

strong
Wake Forest @ NC State
Over 56.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.0%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 21% toward market (confidence 0.79)

strong
Boise State @ Fresno State
Fresno State +8.5
-110 at Bovada
Model62.1%
Market51.2%
Edge+10.8%
Pts+5.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83)

strong
South Florida @ UTSA
South Florida ML
+215 at Bovada
Model41.1%
Market30.7%
Edge+10.4%
Pts+5.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
UAB @ Memphis
Memphis -14.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.6%
Market51.2%
Edge+10.3%
Pts+5.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
South Alabama @ Arkansas State
Over 60
-110 at Bovada
Model61.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+10.3%
Pts+5.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61); push chance 2.7%

strong
North Dakota State @ UNLV
Over 47.5
-110 at Bovada
Model60.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+10.2%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 13% toward market (confidence 0.87)

strong
Washington State @ Utah State
Under 44.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.6%
Market51.5%
Edge+10.1%
Pts+5.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

strong
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Under 47.5
-110 at Bovada
Model60.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+10.1%
Pts+5.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

strong
Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts
Over 44.5
-110 at Bovada
Model60.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+10.1%
Pts+5.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

strong
Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts
Massachusetts ML
+185 at DraftKings
Model48.4%
Market38.4%
Edge+10.0%
Pts+6.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

strong
San Diego State @ Oregon State
Under 52.5
-110 at Bovada
Model59.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.9%
Pts+5.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

strong
Sacramento State @ Bowling Green
Sacramento State ML
+260 at DraftKings
Model36.4%
Market26.7%
Edge+9.7%
Pts+9.2
Units2.97

model shrunk 55% toward market (confidence 0.45)

strong
Mississippi @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt +9.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.2%
Market50.6%
Edge+9.6%
Pts+5.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Sacramento State @ Bowling Green
Sacramento State +9.5
-110 at Bovada
Model59.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.4%
Pts+8.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 55% toward market (confidence 0.45)

strong
USC @ Penn State
Penn State ML
-105 at Bovada
Model59.8%
Market50.6%
Edge+9.2%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 8% toward market (confidence 0.92)

strong
UCF @ Oklahoma State
UCF ML
+320 at Bovada
Model30.3%
Market21.1%
Edge+9.2%
Pts+8.9
Units2.14

model shrunk 52% toward market (confidence 0.48)

strong
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State
Over 48.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.2%
Pts+4.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 35% toward market (confidence 0.65)

strong
Wyoming @ San José State
Under 43
-110 at Bovada
Model59.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.2%
Pts+4.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71); push chance 2.8%

strong
Boise State @ Fresno State
Over 48.5
-110 at Bovada
Model59.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.1%
Pts+3.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83)

strong
North Dakota State @ UNLV
North Dakota State -2.5
-110 at Bovada
Model59.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.1%
Pts+4.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 13% toward market (confidence 0.87)

strong
Charlotte @ North Texas
Over 57.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.8%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.1%
Pts+5.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 46% toward market (confidence 0.54)

strong
Charlotte @ North Texas
North Texas -27.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+9.0%
Pts+7.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 46% toward market (confidence 0.54)

strong
UCLA @ Oregon
UCLA ML
+345 at Bovada
Model29.1%
Market20.1%
Edge+9.0%
Pts+6.0
Units2.14

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State
Appalachian State -8.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.8%
Market51.2%
Edge+8.6%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
Ball State @ Northwestern
Under 53.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.1%
Market50.7%
Edge+8.3%
Pts+6.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 55% toward market (confidence 0.45)

strong
UCF @ Oklahoma State
Under 53.5
-110 at Bovada
Model58.3%
Market50.0%
Edge+8.3%
Pts+6.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 52% toward market (confidence 0.48)

strong
Indiana @ Nebraska
Nebraska ML
+270 at DraftKings
Model32.6%
Market24.3%
Edge+8.3%
Pts+4.6
Units1.92

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84)

strong
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech
Over 48
-110 at Bovada
Model59.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+8.2%
Pts+4.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 42% toward market (confidence 0.58); push chance 2.7%

strong
Syracuse @ Virginia
Under 49.5
-110 at Bovada
Model58.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+8.1%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 42% toward market (confidence 0.58)

strong
North Dakota State @ UNLV
North Dakota State ML
-130 at DraftKings
Model65.2%
Market57.1%
Edge+8.0%
Pts+3.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 13% toward market (confidence 0.87)

strong
Illinois @ Michigan State
Michigan State ML
+150 at Bovada
Model48.6%
Market40.6%
Edge+8.0%
Pts+4.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71)

strong
Virginia Tech @ California
Under 53.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.3%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.6%
Pts+3.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
James Madison @ Georgia Southern
James Madison ML
-310 at DraftKings
Model83.1%
Market75.5%
Edge+7.5%
Pts+6.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Central Michigan @ Ohio
Ohio -2.5
-110 at Bovada
Model57.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.5%
Pts+5.6
Units2.69

model shrunk 45% toward market (confidence 0.55)

strong
UCF @ Oklahoma State
UCF +10.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.0%
Market50.6%
Edge+7.3%
Pts+6.3
Units2.93

model shrunk 52% toward market (confidence 0.48)

strong
Connecticut @ Temple
Connecticut ML
+160 at Bovada
Model44.4%
Market37.1%
Edge+7.3%
Pts+4.3
Units2.40

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall
Coastal Carolina ML
+154 at DraftKings
Model46.5%
Market39.3%
Edge+7.2%
Pts+4.2
Units2.93

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Tulane @ Army
Army ML
-160 at Bovada
Model69.7%
Market62.6%
Edge+7.1%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 23% toward market (confidence 0.77)

strong
Tulane @ Army
Army -5.5
-110 at Bovada
Model57.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.1%
Pts+3.7
Units2.50

model shrunk 23% toward market (confidence 0.77)

strong
South Carolina @ Florida
Over 59.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+3.0
Units2.45

model shrunk 19% toward market (confidence 0.81)

strong
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall
Coastal Carolina +4.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.7%
Market50.6%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+4.1
Units2.77

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Air Force @ Northern Illinois
Air Force -7
-110 at Bovada
Model57.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+5.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52); push chance 2.3%

strong
USC @ Penn State
Penn State -1
-110 at Bovada
Model57.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+3.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 8% toward market (confidence 0.92); push chance 2.4%

strong
Tennessee @ Arkansas
Tennessee -13.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+4.1
Units2.40

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Eastern Michigan @ Akron
Under 51.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.7%
Market50.7%
Edge+6.9%
Pts+5.8
Units2.78

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

strong
Georgia @ Alabama
Alabama ML
-110 at Bovada
Model58.6%
Market51.7%
Edge+6.9%
Pts+3.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 11% toward market (confidence 0.89)

strong
Hawai'i @ Arizona State
Under 50.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.7%
Pts+3.1
Units2.25

model shrunk 28% toward market (confidence 0.72)

strong
Kent State @ Western Michigan
Western Michigan -14
-110 at Bovada
Model56.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.4%
Pts+6.3
Units2.80

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42); push chance 2.3%

strong
South Florida @ UTSA
South Florida +5.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.1%
Pts+3.3
Units1.97

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Air Force @ Northern Illinois
Over 48.5
-110 at Bovada
Model56.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.1%
Pts+4.1
Units1.96

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Iowa State @ BYU
BYU -11
-110 at Bovada
Model56.5%
Market50.6%
Edge+5.9%
Pts+3.0
Units2.91

model shrunk 19% toward market (confidence 0.81); push chance 2.4%

strong
Illinois @ Michigan State
Michigan State +2.5
-110 at Bovada
Model55.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.7%
Pts+3.3
Units1.76

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71)

strong
UCLA @ Oregon
UCLA +10.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.7%
Pts+3.1
Units1.74

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

play
Washington State @ Utah State
Washington State ML
+155 at Bovada
Model42.6%
Market37.1%
Edge+5.5%
Pts+3.4
Units1.39

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

play
Central Michigan @ Ohio
Ohio ML
-142 at DraftKings
Model64.9%
Market59.4%
Edge+5.5%
Pts+4.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 45% toward market (confidence 0.55)

play
Sam Houston State @ Liberty
Liberty -13.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.2%
Pts+4.8
Units1.47

model shrunk 56% toward market (confidence 0.44)

play
South Alabama @ Arkansas State
Arkansas State ML
-115 at Bovada
Model60.7%
Market55.6%
Edge+5.1%
Pts+3.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61)

play
Wyoming @ San José State
San José State -4
-110 at Bovada
Model55.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+5.0%
Pts+2.9
Units2.45

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71); push chance 2.4%

play
Wake Forest @ NC State
NC State ML
+150 at Bovada
Model43.1%
Market38.2%
Edge+5.0%
Pts+2.6
Units1.31

model shrunk 21% toward market (confidence 0.79)

play
Ball State @ Northwestern
Northwestern -34.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.5%
Market50.6%
Edge+4.9%
Pts+4.4
Units1.66

model shrunk 55% toward market (confidence 0.45)

play
Duke @ Georgia Tech
Duke ML
-218 at DraftKings
Model74.2%
Market69.3%
Edge+4.9%
Pts+3.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 30% toward market (confidence 0.70)

play
Connecticut @ Temple
Connecticut +4
-110 at Bovada
Model55.4%
Market50.6%
Edge+4.8%
Pts+2.8
Units2.32

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69); push chance 2.4%

play
Rice @ East Carolina
East Carolina -10
-110 at Bovada
Model54.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.8%
Pts+3.6
Units1.96

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53); push chance 2.4%

play
South Carolina @ Florida
Florida -10.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.7%
Pts+2.3
Units1.21

model shrunk 19% toward market (confidence 0.81)

play
Florida State @ Louisville
Florida State ML
+190 at Bovada
Model38.7%
Market34.0%
Edge+4.7%
Pts+2.5
Units1.61

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

play
Minnesota @ Purdue
Minnesota ML
-130 at Bovada
Model60.1%
Market55.6%
Edge+4.5%
Pts+3.5
Units2.06

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

play
Texas vs Oklahoma
Texas ML
-320 at Bovada
Model79.6%
Market75.2%
Edge+4.4%
Pts+2.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 5% toward market (confidence 0.95)

play
Hawai'i @ Arizona State
Hawai'i +21
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.0%
Market50.6%
Edge+4.4%
Pts+2.4
Units2.11

model shrunk 28% toward market (confidence 0.72); push chance 2.5%

play
Kansas @ Utah
Utah ML
-700 at DraftKings
Model90.8%
Market86.5%
Edge+4.3%
Pts+4.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84)

play
Tulsa @ Navy
Over 47.5
-110 at Bovada
Model54.3%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.3%
Pts+2.7
Units0.98

model shrunk 46% toward market (confidence 0.54)

play
San Diego State @ Oregon State
San Diego State +16.5
-110 at Bovada
Model54.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.2%
Pts+2.8
Units0.93

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

play
Indiana @ Nebraska
Nebraska +8.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.1%
Pts+2.0
Units0.93

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84)

play
South Alabama @ Arkansas State
Arkansas State -3
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.1%
Pts+2.7
Units1.64

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61); push chance 2.5%

play
Minnesota @ Purdue
Minnesota -2.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.9%
Pts+3.0
Units1.15

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

play
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State ML
+140 at Bovada
Model44.8%
Market40.9%
Edge+3.9%
Pts+2.4
Units1.34

model shrunk 35% toward market (confidence 0.65)

play
Nevada @ UTEP
Over 47.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.5%
Market50.7%
Edge+3.8%
Pts+2.7
Units1.12

model shrunk 53% toward market (confidence 0.47)

play
Texas A&M @ Missouri
Missouri -4.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model53.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+3.7%
Pts+1.9
Units0.71

model shrunk 19% toward market (confidence 0.81)

play
Missouri State @ Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky +2
-110 at Bovada
Model54.2%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.6%
Pts+2.5
Units1.70

model shrunk 41% toward market (confidence 0.59); push chance 2.5%

play
Maryland @ Ohio State
Ohio State -31
-110 at Bovada
Model54.2%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.6%
Pts+2.3
Units1.69

model shrunk 37% toward market (confidence 0.63); push chance 2.5%

play
UAB @ Memphis
Memphis ML
-650 at DraftKings
Model89.0%
Market85.5%
Edge+3.6%
Pts+3.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

play
Washington State @ Utah State
Washington State +4
-110 at DraftKings
Model53.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+3.5%
Pts+2.1
Units1.32

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66); push chance 2.5%

lean
Sacramento State @ Bowling Green
Under 43.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.1%
Market50.7%
Edge+3.4%
Pts+2.6
Units0.93

model shrunk 55% toward market (confidence 0.45)

lean
San Diego State @ Oregon State
San Diego State ML
+525 at DraftKings
Model17.4%
Market14.1%
Edge+3.3%
Pts+3.5
Units0.42

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

lean
Nevada @ UTEP
Nevada -10
-110 at Bovada
Model53.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+3.0%
Pts+2.5
Units1.02

model shrunk 53% toward market (confidence 0.47); push chance 2.5%

lean
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State +3
-110 at DraftKings
Model52.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+2.8%
Pts+1.7
Units0.94

model shrunk 35% toward market (confidence 0.65); push chance 2.5%

lean
Tulsa @ Navy
Tulsa +3
-110 at Bovada
Model52.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+2.8%
Pts+2.1
Units0.93

model shrunk 46% toward market (confidence 0.54); push chance 2.5%

lean
LSU @ Kentucky
Kentucky ML
+295 at Bovada
Model25.9%
Market23.1%
Edge+2.8%
Pts+2.1
Units0.19

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.67)

lean
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State
Appalachian State ML
-360 at DraftKings
Model79.7%
Market77.3%
Edge+2.4%
Pts+1.8
Units1.63

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

lean
Tulsa @ Navy
Tulsa ML
+124 at DraftKings
Model46.0%
Market43.9%
Edge+2.1%
Pts+1.5
Units0.60

model shrunk 46% toward market (confidence 0.54)

lean
Kent State @ Western Michigan
Western Michigan ML
-600 at DraftKings
Model86.9%
Market84.8%
Edge+2.1%
Pts+3.9
Units2.02

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

All projections

278 games
MatchupMarginFair spread TotalHome winConf
Stanford @ Notre Dame+47.8-47.853.1100%0.57
Ball State @ Northwestern+39.2-39.246.899%0.45
Charlotte @ North Texas+34.7-34.763.798%0.54
Maryland @ Ohio State+33.6-33.654.998%0.63
Lackawanna @ Kutztown+30.3-30.352.997%0.50
Thiel @ Saint Vincent+29.8-29.852.997%0.50
Buffalo @ Toledo+27.4-27.446.496%0.68
Henderson State @ Northwestern (OK)-27.2+27.250.94%0.50
Hamline @ Concordia (MN)+26.7-26.751.695%0.50
Plymouth State @ Mass Maritime+26.4-26.452.995%0.50
Roosevelt @ Wayne State (MI)-24.9+24.952.96%0.50
Lane College @ Albany State+24.6-24.652.994%0.50
Princeton @ Wagner-24.3+24.352.96%0.92
South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern-23.2+23.252.67%0.21
Northern Michigan @ Davenport+23.2-23.252.093%0.50
Concordia (WI) @ Eureka-22.7+22.752.18%0.50
Lake Forest @ Ripon-22.6+22.651.08%0.50
Kansas @ Utah+22.1-22.151.592%0.84
Southwest Minnesota State @ Sioux Falls+21.6-21.650.591%0.50
San Diego @ Butler+21.0-21.052.891%0.44
UAB @ Memphis+20.8-20.861.190%0.73
Cal Poly @ Idaho State+20.4-20.452.990%0.64
Bluffton @ Manchester+20.4-20.452.990%0.50
Claremont Mudd Scripps @ La Verne+20.4-20.452.990%0.50
Linfield @ Pacific (OR)-20.3+20.352.910%0.50
Kent State @ Western Michigan+20.3-20.341.190%0.42
Morehead State @ Dayton+20.2-20.252.790%0.48
Schreiner @ East Texas Baptist+19.9-19.952.989%0.50
Wisconsin Oshkosh @ Wisconsin River Falls+19.9-19.950.989%0.50
Mount State Joseph @ Franklin-19.2+19.252.112%0.50
Eastern Illinois @ Gardner-Webb+18.9-18.951.988%0.76
Lake Erie @ Kentucky Wesleyan-18.9+18.952.812%0.50
Seton Hill @ Slippery Rock+18.4-18.452.988%0.50
Centenary (LA) @ Hendrix+18.4-18.452.987%0.50
Stetson @ Saint Thomas Mn+18.3-18.351.487%0.78
Hawai'i @ Arizona State+18.3-18.347.487%0.72
Sam Houston State @ Liberty+18.3-18.351.587%0.44
Miles @ Kentucky State+18.0-18.052.587%0.50
James Madison @ Georgia Southern-17.7+17.750.813%0.69
Tennessee @ Arkansas-17.6+17.660.414%0.69
Cornell (IA) @ Chicago+17.3-17.352.386%0.50
Willamette @ Lewis & Clark+16.7-16.752.985%0.50
Howard @ Pennsylvania+16.6-16.652.985%0.60
Berry @ Rhodes-16.4+16.452.915%0.50
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh+16.1-16.142.084%0.64
Ashland @ Findlay+16.1-16.152.984%0.50
Grinnell @ Illinois College+15.9-15.952.984%0.50
Westminster (MO) @ Crown-15.9+15.952.916%0.50
Ferrum @ Shorter+15.8-15.852.884%0.50
Anderson (IN) @ Rose Hulman+15.7-15.752.984%0.50
Franklin Pierce @ Delaware State-15.7+15.752.916%0.50
Missouri S&T @ Indianapolis+15.2-15.252.983%0.50
Virginia Lynchburg @ Norfolk State+15.2-15.252.183%0.50
Susquehanna @ Catholic-15.1+15.152.917%0.50
Gannon @ Clarion+15.0-15.052.983%0.50
Southeastern Oklahoma State @ Harding+14.8-14.852.982%0.50
Clark Atlanta @ Fort Valley State+14.7-14.752.482%0.50
Lenoir Rhyne @ UVA Wise-14.6+14.652.618%0.50
Southern Nazarene @ Ouachita Baptist+14.5-14.552.982%0.50
Furman @ Tennessee Tech+14.4-14.452.182%0.61
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern+14.3-14.352.981%0.88
Brevard @ Southern Virginia-14.3+14.352.919%0.50
Iowa State @ BYU+14.2-14.245.981%0.81
Texas A&M-Kingsville @ Western Oregon+13.9-13.952.981%0.50
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State+13.8-13.845.981%0.73
San Diego State @ Oregon State+13.7-13.746.880%0.60
Hartwick @ Saint John Fisher+13.6-13.652.980%0.50
Rice @ East Carolina+13.6-13.648.680%0.53
Chowan @ North Greenville+13.6-13.649.380%0.50
Grand Valley State @ Michigan Tech-13.5+13.552.320%0.50
Texas @ Oklahoma-13.4+13.436.520%0.95
Southern Illinois @ South Dakota+13.4-13.452.980%0.83
Rochester (NY) @ Ithaca+13.3-13.352.980%0.50
Pittsburg State @ Washburn+13.2-13.252.880%0.50
Millikin @ Augustana (IL)+13.1-13.152.779%0.50
Syracuse @ Virginia+12.9-12.944.779%0.58
South Carolina @ Florida+12.8-12.862.579%0.81
Mass Maritime @ Westfield State-12.8+12.852.921%0.50
Drake @ Valparaiso+12.7-12.752.579%0.53
Florida A&M @ Alabama State+12.7-12.752.979%0.64
Savannah State @ Morehouse+12.7-12.748.979%0.50
Tarleton State @ Austin Peay+12.6-12.652.979%0.63
FDU Florham @ Delaware Valley+12.6-12.652.979%0.50
Saginaw Valley State @ Ferris State+12.6-12.652.378%0.50
Methodist @ LaGrange+12.5-12.552.978%0.50
Air Force @ Northern Illinois-12.5+12.552.622%0.52
Nevada @ UTEP-12.5+12.550.522%0.47
King's @ Eastern+12.5-12.552.978%0.50
Samford @ Chattanooga+12.3-12.352.078%0.86
Merchant Marine @ SUNY Maritime-12.0+12.052.923%0.50
SE Louisiana @ UT Rio Grande Valley+12.0-12.052.777%0.59
Centre @ Millsaps+11.9-11.952.777%0.50
Buena Vista @ Wartburg+11.9-11.951.677%0.50
Sul Ross State @ Angelo State+11.8-11.852.377%0.50
Colby @ Wesleyan (CT)+11.8-11.852.977%0.50
Stony Brook @ Towson-11.8+11.852.923%0.92
Saint Francis @ Case Western Reserve+11.7-11.751.977%0.10
Duke @ Georgia Tech-11.5+11.554.824%0.70
Saint Lawrence @ Hilbert-11.2+11.252.924%0.50
Virginia Tech @ California-11.2+11.249.724%0.73
Minot State @ Jamestown-11.2+11.252.924%0.50
Southern Mississippi @ Troy+10.9-10.950.975%0.62
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood-10.9+10.952.925%0.88
Central Missouri @ Northwest Missouri State+10.9-10.951.775%0.50
Shippensburg @ Millersville-10.8+10.852.925%0.50
Whitworth @ George Fox+10.7-10.752.975%0.50
Southern @ Prairie View A&M+10.6-10.652.975%0.69
Frostburg State @ Glenville State-10.4+10.452.926%0.50
Rensselaer @ Buffalo State-10.2+10.252.926%0.50
Lock Haven @ IU Pennsylvania+10.1-10.152.974%0.50
Tusculum @ Wingate+10.1-10.151.974%0.50
William Paterson @ Montclair State+10.0-10.052.973%0.50
Middlebury @ Amherst+9.8-9.852.973%0.50
Saint John's (MN) @ Macalester-9.7+9.751.427%0.50
LSU @ Kentucky-9.7+9.748.327%0.67
Livingstone @ Virginia State+9.6-9.652.773%0.50
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M+9.6-9.650.073%0.70
Bethany (WV) @ Washington & Jefferson+9.5-9.552.872%0.50
Youngstown State @ Indiana State-9.5+9.552.928%0.84
UT Permian Basin @ West Texas-9.4+9.452.928%0.50
Framingham State @ Plymouth State-9.3+9.352.928%0.50
Tulane @ Army+9.2-9.248.272%0.77
Edinboro @ California (PA)+9.0-9.052.971%0.50
Wisconsin Eau Claire @ Wisconsin Platteville+9.0-9.051.671%0.50
Ohio Northern @ Baldwin Wallace+8.8-8.852.371%0.50
Puget Sound @ Pacific Lutheran+8.7-8.752.971%0.50
Wofford @ Elon+8.6-8.651.970%0.55
Oklahoma Baptist @ Arkansas Monticello+8.6-8.652.970%0.50
Walsh @ Hillsdale+8.5-8.552.570%0.50
Minnesota State @ Winona State-8.5+8.550.930%0.50
Shaw @ Johnson C. Smith+8.4-8.452.970%0.50
Simpson (IA) @ Loras+8.4-8.452.570%0.50
Emporia State @ Missouri Southern State-8.3+8.352.930%0.50
Framingham State @ Bridgewater State+8.3-8.352.970%0.50
Rowan @ Salisbury+8.1-8.152.669%0.50
Central Michigan @ Ohio+8.1-8.143.869%0.55
East Central @ Arkansas Tech-8.0+8.052.931%0.50
Idaho @ Weber State+8.0-8.052.969%0.87
West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky+7.9-7.951.469%0.95
Saint Scholastica @ Carleton+7.8-7.850.069%0.50
Concordia Chicago @ Aurora-7.5+7.552.832%0.50
Saint Olaf @ Gustavus Adolphus+7.5-7.550.268%0.50
UCLA @ Oregon+7.4-7.464.568%0.75
Augsburg @ Bethel (MN)+7.4-7.451.168%0.50
Vermont State Castleton @ The College of New Jersey-7.2+7.252.933%0.50
New Mexico State @ Florida International+7.2-7.244.667%0.60
Of Mary @ Minnesota State Moorhead+7.2-7.251.967%0.50
American International @ Central Connecticut-7.2+7.252.933%0.50
Wyoming @ San José State+7.1-7.138.367%0.71
North Carolina Wesleyan @ Belhaven-7.1+7.151.833%0.50
Jackson State @ Grambling-7.1+7.152.933%0.32
Eastern Michigan @ Akron-6.9+6.945.433%0.42
Lycoming @ Wilkes+6.9-6.952.967%0.50
Johns Hopkins @ Carnegie Mellon+6.8-6.852.966%0.50
Franklin & Marshall @ Muhlenberg-6.8+6.852.934%0.50
North Dakota State @ UNLV-6.8+6.851.634%0.87
Thomas More @ Ohio Dominican+6.8-6.852.966%0.50
Utica @ SUNY Morrisville-6.6+6.652.934%0.50
Indiana @ Nebraska-6.5+6.553.434%0.84
Hamilton @ Trinity (CT)+6.5-6.552.966%0.50
Ursinus @ McDaniel-6.4+6.452.934%0.50
Anderson (SC) @ Carson Newman+6.4-6.452.966%0.50
Western Carolina @ Mercer+6.4-6.452.666%0.82
Utah Tech @ Portland State+6.4-6.452.966%0.69
Northeastern State @ West Florida-6.4+6.452.935%0.50
Texas A&M @ Missouri+6.4-6.449.965%0.81
William & Mary @ North Carolina Central+6.3-6.352.565%0.80
Azusa Pacific @ Cal Lutheran+6.3-6.352.965%0.50
Marietta @ Mount Union+6.3-6.352.565%0.50
Wisconsin Whitewater @ Wisconsin La Crosse-6.2+6.252.635%0.50
Concord @ West Virginia State+6.1-6.152.965%0.50
Chapman @ Redlands-6.1+6.152.935%0.50
North Dakota @ Northern Iowa-6.0+6.052.935%0.93
Union @ Hobart+5.8-5.852.964%0.50
Christopher Newport @ Kean-5.8+5.852.936%0.50
Minnesota @ Purdue-5.8+5.859.836%0.53
South Alabama @ Arkansas State+5.7-5.766.264%0.61
Grove City @ Westminster (PA)-5.7+5.752.936%0.50
Shenandoah @ Averett-5.7+5.752.636%0.50
Lakeland @ Saint Norbert-5.7+5.751.836%0.50
Hanover @ Wilmington (OH)-5.5+5.552.936%0.50
Monroe @ Southern Connecticut State+5.5-5.552.963%0.50
Iowa @ Washington-5.4+5.438.637%0.76
Arkansas Baptist @ Alcorn State+5.2-5.252.263%0.50
Elmhurst @ Carthage+5.2-5.252.863%0.50
Arizona @ West Virginia-5.2+5.260.637%0.61
Central College @ Coe-5.2+5.252.637%0.50
Augustana (SD) @ Concordia State Paul-5.2+5.252.037%0.50
Illinois Wesleyan @ Carroll (WI)+5.1-5.152.463%0.50
Richmond @ Fordham+4.9-4.952.962%0.83
Luther @ Monmouth (IL)+4.9-4.952.062%0.50
Wheeling @ Charleston (WV)+4.9-4.952.962%0.50
Columbia @ Marist+4.8-4.852.962%0.60
Truman State @ Upper Iowa+4.6-4.651.361%0.50
Capital @ Muskingum-4.6+4.652.939%0.50
Bowdoin @ Tufts+4.4-4.452.961%0.50
Martin Luther @ Greenville+4.3-4.352.961%0.50
USC @ Penn State+4.3-4.361.561%0.92
Stevenson @ Lebanon Valley-4.3+4.352.939%0.50
Tuskegee @ Central State+4.3-4.352.361%0.50
Robert Morris @ Morgan State+4.2-4.252.960%0.71
Trinity (TX) @ Southwestern-4.2+4.252.940%0.50
Harvard @ Cornell-4.2+4.252.940%0.75
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech+4.1-4.153.260%0.58
Florida State @ Louisville+4.1-4.167.260%0.78
Dickinson @ Gettysburg+4.0-4.052.960%0.50
Mississippi @ Vanderbilt-4.0+4.062.840%0.75
Eastern New Mexico @ Western New Mexico-4.0+4.052.540%0.50
UCF @ Oklahoma State+4.0-4.047.560%0.48
UT Martin @ Tennessee State-3.9+3.951.840%0.86
Davidson @ Presbyterian-3.9+3.951.540%0.77
Incarnate Word @ Lamar-3.8+3.852.941%0.40
William Jewell @ Quincy-3.8+3.852.841%0.50
Georgia @ Alabama+3.8-3.857.159%0.89
Juniata @ Moravian-3.8+3.852.941%0.50
Shepherd @ West Chester+3.8-3.852.959%0.50
Bates @ Williams+3.8-3.852.959%0.50
Stonehill @ Sacred Heart+3.8-3.852.959%0.70
Albright @ Widener-3.7+3.752.941%0.50
Lincoln (PA) @ Elizabeth City State+3.7-3.752.859%0.50
Northern State @ Minnesota Duluth+3.6-3.652.959%0.50
New Hampshire @ North Carolina A&T+3.6-3.652.159%0.96
Hiram @ Geneva-3.5+3.552.641%0.50
Worcester State @ Fitchburg State-3.5+3.552.941%0.50
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington+3.4-3.452.958%0.95
Southern Arkansas @ Southwestern Oklahoma State+3.3-3.351.958%0.50
Wisconsin Stout @ Wisconsin Stevens Point+3.1-3.151.958%0.50
East Stroudsburg @ Bloomsburg+3.1-3.152.958%0.50
Norwich @ Maine Maritime-3.0+3.052.142%0.50
Fairmont State @ West Virginia Wesleyan+3.0-3.052.957%0.50
Sewanee @ Maryville (TN)-2.9+2.951.743%0.50
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel-2.9+2.951.943%0.85
Lyon @ Austin+2.9-2.949.957%0.50
Howard Payne @ Mary Hardin Baylor+2.8-2.852.957%0.50
Boise State @ Fresno State-2.7+2.752.343%0.83
Benedictine (IL) @ Wisconsin Lutheran-2.6+2.652.944%0.50
Montana @ Northern Arizona+2.4-2.452.956%0.91
Wake Forest @ NC State-2.2+2.261.344%0.79
South Florida @ UTSA+2.2-2.263.255%0.75
Nebraska Wesleyan @ Dubuque+2.2-2.252.455%0.50
Bucknell @ Georgetown+2.2-2.252.955%0.86
Northwood @ Tiffin+2.2-2.252.455%0.50
Long Island @ Duquesne+2.1-2.152.955%0.88
Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts+2.0-2.050.455%0.60
Misericordia @ Alvernia-2.0+2.052.945%0.50
Randolph Macon @ Washington and Lee+2.0-2.052.955%0.50
Hardin Simmons @ McMurry+1.9-1.952.955%0.50
Washington State @ Utah State+1.9-1.938.755%0.66
Bridgewater @ Guilford-1.8+1.852.746%0.50
Benedict @ Allen-1.8+1.852.046%0.50
Southwest Baptist @ McKendree-1.8+1.852.946%0.50
Fort Hays @ Central Oklahoma+1.7-1.752.954%0.50
Bryant @ Brown+1.7-1.752.954%0.72
Houston @ Kansas State+1.5-1.562.454%0.67
Monmouth (IL) @ Luther+1.5-1.551.254%0.50
Newberry @ Catawba+1.5-1.552.954%0.50
Erskine @ UNC Pembroke-1.4+1.450.947%0.50
Minnesota Morris @ Northwestern (MN)+1.3-1.351.353%0.50
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State-1.3+1.353.747%0.65
Greensboro @ Huntingdon+1.2-1.252.753%0.50
Mars Hill @ Emory & Henry+1.1-1.152.753%0.50
Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian+1.1-1.152.953%0.72
Wheaton (IL) @ North Central College+1.1-1.152.953%0.50
Pomona Pitzer @ Whittier-1.0+1.052.948%0.50
Connecticut @ Temple+1.0-1.061.952%0.69
Tulsa @ Navy+0.9-0.950.252%0.54
Illinois @ Michigan State+0.8-0.857.452%0.71
Midwestern State @ Central Washington-0.7+0.752.248%0.50
Missouri State @ Western Kentucky+0.7-0.759.152%0.59
Sacramento State @ Bowling Green+0.7-0.740.752%0.45
Bowie State @ Winston-Salem State+0.7-0.752.552%0.50
Hampden Sydney @ Roanoke College+0.5-0.552.951%0.50
Dartmouth @ Yale+0.4-0.452.951%0.65
Gallaudet @ Dean+0.4-0.452.951%0.50
Nebraska Kearney @ Missouri Western-0.1+0.152.950%0.50
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall+0.1-0.167.350%0.69
Wayne State (NE) @ Bemidji State+0.1-0.151.450%0.50
Beloit @ Lawrence+0.0-0.052.350%0.50