Heads up. Treat this board with suspicion: 32 of 44 spread picks are on the favourite. A model that disagrees with the market in one direction all week is usually miscalibrated rather than right.

College Football Picks

2026 · Week 7 · updated 17 Oct 2026, 16:12 UTC
Bets
109
72 strong
Staked
269.06u
fractional Kelly
Expected
+43.45u
if the model is right
Median edge
7.7%
over the no-vig price

Recommended bets

What these numbers mean
Tier
How much conviction is behind the bet — strong, play or lean, set by the size of the edge.
Bet
The side and number to take, at the price and book shown beside it.
Model
The model's probability this bet wins. Already shrunk toward the market price according to how well-covered the two teams are, so a thinly-rated game shows a number close to the market's.
Market
The same probability implied by the sportsbook price, with the bookmaker's margin removed — what the market really thinks, rather than what the posted odds say.
Edge
Model minus Market: how much better the model rates this bet than the price implies. Anything under a couple of points is noise.
Pts
The same disagreement measured in points rather than probability — how far the model's number sits from the market's on the spread or total.
Units
Suggested stake, where one unit is 1% of bankroll. Sized by quarter-Kelly and capped, so a large edge on an uncertain game still gets a small bet.
109 bets
strong
TCU @ Baylor
Under 50.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model71.8%
Market50.7%
Edge+21.1%
Pts+8.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 13% toward market (confidence 0.87)

strong
New Mexico @ Hawai'i
New Mexico -14.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model70.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+20.9%
Pts+12.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Pittsburgh @ Boston College
Pittsburgh -6.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model68.3%
Market50.0%
Edge+18.3%
Pts+10.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

strong
Florida State @ Miami
Miami -19.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model68.2%
Market50.6%
Edge+17.6%
Pts+9.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83)

strong
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt
Over 48.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model67.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+17.1%
Pts+9.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

strong
Alabama @ Tennessee
Over 50.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model66.7%
Market50.7%
Edge+15.9%
Pts+6.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 9% toward market (confidence 0.91)

strong
Washington State @ Oregon State
Under 52.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model66.2%
Market50.7%
Edge+15.5%
Pts+7.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71)

strong
Rutgers @ Maryland
Over 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model65.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+15.2%
Pts+9.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61)

strong
Arizona State @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech -15.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+14.4%
Pts+7.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

strong
Charlotte @ Temple
Over 45.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.8%
Market50.7%
Edge+14.0%
Pts+10.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

strong
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana Monroe
Over 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.1%
Market50.7%
Edge+13.4%
Pts+10.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

strong
Auburn @ Georgia
Under 50
-110 at Bovada
Model64.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+13.2%
Pts+5.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85); push chance 2.7%

strong
Troy @ Louisiana
Over 48.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+13.2%
Pts+5.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83)

strong
Mississippi State @ LSU
Mississippi State +18
-110 at Bovada
Model63.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+13.0%
Pts+7.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76); push chance 2.2%

strong
Wisconsin @ UCLA
UCLA -1.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.2%
Market51.2%
Edge+13.0%
Pts+7.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
Pittsburgh @ Boston College
Pittsburgh ML
-225 at Bovada
Model81.3%
Market68.3%
Edge+12.9%
Pts+8.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

strong
Missouri @ Mississippi
Missouri ML
+185 at Bovada
Model46.7%
Market34.7%
Edge+12.0%
Pts+5.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 12% toward market (confidence 0.88)

strong
Arkansas State @ Southern Mississippi
Over 61.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model62.7%
Market50.7%
Edge+11.9%
Pts+6.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

strong
Mississippi State @ LSU
Over 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.9%
Pts+5.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

strong
Utah @ Colorado
Utah -14.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model62.3%
Market50.6%
Edge+11.7%
Pts+7.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 38% toward market (confidence 0.62)

strong
Colorado State @ Texas State
Over 69.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model62.4%
Market50.7%
Edge+11.6%
Pts+7.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

strong
Penn State @ Michigan
Under 43
-110 at Bovada
Model62.1%
Market50.7%
Edge+11.4%
Pts+4.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84); push chance 2.8%

strong
Ohio State @ Indiana
Indiana ML
+160 at Bovada
Model51.1%
Market39.9%
Edge+11.2%
Pts+5.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 10% toward market (confidence 0.90)

strong
Washington @ Purdue
Over 50.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.1%
Pts+6.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 41% toward market (confidence 0.59)

strong
Florida Atlantic @ Army
Over 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.1%
Pts+5.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71)

strong
Wisconsin @ UCLA
UCLA ML
-122 at DraftKings
Model68.1%
Market57.1%
Edge+11.1%
Pts+6.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
East Carolina @ UAB
Under 49.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.7%
Market50.7%
Edge+10.9%
Pts+5.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

strong
Nebraska @ Oregon
Over 51.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+10.9%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 8% toward market (confidence 0.92)

strong
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan
Under 53
-110 at Bovada
Model61.4%
Market50.7%
Edge+10.7%
Pts+5.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 30% toward market (confidence 0.70); push chance 2.7%

strong
Virginia @ SMU
Virginia ML
+285 at DraftKings
Model34.5%
Market24.0%
Edge+10.4%
Pts+5.7
Units2.87

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85)

strong
Cincinnati @ West Virginia
Over 63.5
-110 at Bovada
Model61.4%
Market51.5%
Edge+10.0%
Pts+5.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 38% toward market (confidence 0.62)

strong
Notre Dame @ BYU
Over 46.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.7%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.9%
Pts+3.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 12% toward market (confidence 0.88)

strong
Florida @ Texas
Over 51
-110 at Bovada
Model60.5%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.8%
Pts+4.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78); push chance 2.8%

strong
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Tech -15.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.8%
Pts+8.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

strong
Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina
Over 48.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.5%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.7%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 30% toward market (confidence 0.70)

strong
Nevada @ North Dakota State
Under 43
-110 at Bovada
Model60.2%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.4%
Pts+3.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83); push chance 2.8%

strong
Louisville @ Syracuse
Syracuse +14.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.4%
Pts+6.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 42% toward market (confidence 0.58)

strong
Northern Illinois @ Wyoming
Under 42.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.3%
Pts+6.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

strong
Georgia State @ James Madison
James Madison -8
-110 at Bovada
Model59.9%
Market50.6%
Edge+9.2%
Pts+6.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60); push chance 2.3%

strong
Virginia @ SMU
Virginia +10
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.2%
Pts+4.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85); push chance 2.4%

strong
Louisville @ Syracuse
Over 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.8%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.1%
Pts+5.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 42% toward market (confidence 0.58)

strong
Massachusetts @ Buffalo
Massachusetts +7
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.1%
Pts+5.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 37% toward market (confidence 0.63); push chance 2.3%

strong
Louisville @ Syracuse
Syracuse ML
+470 at DraftKings
Model24.7%
Market15.8%
Edge+9.0%
Pts+8.3
Units2.18

model shrunk 42% toward market (confidence 0.58)

strong
Florida State @ Miami
Over 56.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+8.6%
Pts+3.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83)

strong
Massachusetts @ Buffalo
Massachusetts ML
+230 at DraftKings
Model42.3%
Market33.8%
Edge+8.5%
Pts+5.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 37% toward market (confidence 0.63)

strong
Missouri @ Mississippi
Missouri +5
-110 at Bovada
Model59.5%
Market51.2%
Edge+8.3%
Pts+3.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 12% toward market (confidence 0.88); push chance 2.4%

strong
Charlotte @ Temple
Temple -17.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.8%
Market52.5%
Edge+8.3%
Pts+7.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

strong
Nevada @ North Dakota State
North Dakota State -14
-110 at Bovada
Model58.8%
Market50.6%
Edge+8.2%
Pts+4.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83); push chance 2.4%

strong
Akron @ Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) -9.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+8.2%
Pts+8.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

strong
Northwestern @ Michigan State
Northwestern -7
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+8.2%
Pts+4.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71); push chance 2.4%

strong
Ohio State @ Indiana
Indiana +3
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.8%
Market50.6%
Edge+8.2%
Pts+3.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 10% toward market (confidence 0.90); push chance 2.4%

strong
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech -8.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+8.1%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Troy @ Louisiana
Louisiana -3
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.9%
Pts+3.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83); push chance 2.4%

strong
Mississippi State @ LSU
Mississippi State ML
+625 at DraftKings
Model22.8%
Market15.1%
Edge+7.7%
Pts+5.9
Units2.62

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

strong
Penn State @ Michigan
Penn State ML
+190 at DraftKings
Model40.3%
Market32.6%
Edge+7.7%
Pts+3.9
Units2.22

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84)

strong
Florida International @ Jacksonville State
Under 44.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.4%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.7%
Pts+3.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85)

strong
Ohio State @ Indiana
Over 49.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.4%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.7%
Pts+2.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 10% toward market (confidence 0.90)

strong
New Mexico @ Hawai'i
New Mexico ML
-650 at DraftKings
Model92.8%
Market85.3%
Edge+7.5%
Pts+10.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Florida International @ Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State ML
-140 at Bovada
Model64.1%
Market56.6%
Edge+7.5%
Pts+3.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85)

strong
Pittsburgh @ Boston College
Under 43
-110 at Bovada
Model57.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.2%
Pts+3.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78); push chance 2.9%

strong
Florida International @ Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State -3
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+3.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85); push chance 2.4%

strong
Fresno State @ San Diego State
Fresno State -7
-110 at Bovada
Model57.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+4.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 38% toward market (confidence 0.62); push chance 2.4%

strong
Washington State @ Oregon State
Oregon State -18.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+4.0
Units2.42

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71)

strong
Northwestern @ Michigan State
Over 50
-110 at Bovada
Model57.6%
Market50.7%
Edge+6.9%
Pts+3.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71); push chance 2.9%

strong
Oklahoma State @ Houston
Houston -4.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.9%
Pts+5.4
Units2.35

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Kent State @ South Florida
South Florida -20.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.6%
Pts+6.5
Units2.24

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

strong
Kennesaw State @ Missouri State
Kennesaw State -2.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.4%
Pts+4.1
Units2.13

model shrunk 37% toward market (confidence 0.63)

strong
Kansas @ Kansas State
Kansas State -3
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.4%
Market50.6%
Edge+5.8%
Pts+2.5
Units2.85

model shrunk 8% toward market (confidence 0.92); push chance 2.5%

strong
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston State
Sam Houston State +1.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.3%
Market50.6%
Edge+5.7%
Pts+4.7
Units2.06

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

strong
Penn State @ Michigan
Penn State +6
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.6%
Pts+2.7
Units2.42

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84); push chance 2.5%

strong
New Mexico @ Hawai'i
Under 45.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.6%
Pts+2.5
Units1.67

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
UNLV @ Air Force
Air Force ML
-105 at Bovada
Model55.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.5%
Pts+2.7
Units2.22

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84)

play
Auburn @ Georgia
Georgia -19.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.5%
Pts+2.6
Units1.63

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85)

play
Wake Forest @ California
Wake Forest -10
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.5%
Pts+3.3
Units2.35

model shrunk 33% toward market (confidence 0.67); push chance 2.4%

play
Arizona State @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech ML
-650 at Bovada
Model91.1%
Market85.7%
Edge+5.4%
Pts+6.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

play
Florida Atlantic @ Army
Army -2
-110 at Bovada
Model56.0%
Market50.6%
Edge+5.4%
Pts+3.0
Units2.64

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71); push chance 2.4%

play
Cincinnati @ West Virginia
Cincinnati +1.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.0%
Pts+3.3
Units1.40

model shrunk 38% toward market (confidence 0.62)

play
UNLV @ Air Force
Air Force +1
-110 at Bovada
Model58.1%
Market53.1%
Edge+5.0%
Pts+2.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 16% toward market (confidence 0.84); push chance 2.4%

play
Florida Atlantic @ Army
Army ML
-130 at DraftKings
Model61.0%
Market56.0%
Edge+5.0%
Pts+2.9
Units2.57

model shrunk 29% toward market (confidence 0.71)

play
Notre Dame @ BYU
BYU ML
+330 at Bovada
Model25.8%
Market20.9%
Edge+4.9%
Pts+2.9
Units0.84

model shrunk 12% toward market (confidence 0.88)

play
North Carolina @ Duke
Over 46.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.6%
Market50.7%
Edge+4.9%
Pts+2.6
Units1.70

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.65)

play
North Carolina @ Duke
Duke -3
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.8%
Pts+3.0
Units1.98

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.65); push chance 2.5%

play
Arkansas State @ Southern Mississippi
Southern Mississippi ML
+225 at Bovada
Model34.9%
Market30.1%
Edge+4.7%
Pts+3.2
Units1.48

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

play
Kennesaw State @ Missouri State
Kennesaw State ML
-142 at DraftKings
Model63.3%
Market58.6%
Edge+4.7%
Pts+3.1
Units2.81

model shrunk 37% toward market (confidence 0.63)

play
Oklahoma State @ Houston
Houston ML
-192 at DraftKings
Model68.9%
Market64.2%
Edge+4.7%
Pts+4.1
Units2.27

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

play
San José State @ UTEP
Under 45.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.6%
Pts+3.3
Units1.19

model shrunk 53% toward market (confidence 0.47)

play
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston State
Sam Houston State ML
-105 at Bovada
Model53.8%
Market49.2%
Edge+4.6%
Pts+3.7
Units1.31

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

play
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan
Under 42.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.6%
Pts+2.7
Units1.15

model shrunk 43% toward market (confidence 0.57)

play
Akron @ Miami (OH)
Over 46.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.6%
Pts+3.8
Units1.14

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

play
San José State @ UTEP
San José State -7
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.4%
Pts+3.7
Units1.75

model shrunk 53% toward market (confidence 0.47); push chance 2.4%

play
Cincinnati @ West Virginia
Cincinnati ML
+102 at DraftKings
Model51.8%
Market47.4%
Edge+4.3%
Pts+2.8
Units1.13

model shrunk 38% toward market (confidence 0.62)

play
Troy @ Louisiana
Louisiana ML
-148 at DraftKings
Model65.7%
Market61.4%
Edge+4.3%
Pts+2.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 17% toward market (confidence 0.83)

play
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion
Georgia Southern -3
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.2%
Pts+2.4
Units1.69

model shrunk 30% toward market (confidence 0.70); push chance 2.5%

play
Northern Illinois @ Wyoming
Wyoming -7.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.8%
Market50.6%
Edge+4.2%
Pts+3.2
Units1.27

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

play
Akron @ Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) ML
-360 at DraftKings
Model81.4%
Market77.7%
Edge+3.7%
Pts+5.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

play
Florida @ Texas
Texas -12.5
-110 at Bovada
Model54.9%
Market51.2%
Edge+3.6%
Pts+1.9
Units1.31

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

play
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt
Arkansas ML
+195 at Bovada
Model35.6%
Market32.0%
Edge+3.6%
Pts+2.4
Units0.65

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

lean
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Tech ML
-700 at DraftKings
Model89.6%
Market86.1%
Edge+3.5%
Pts+6.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

lean
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan
Western Michigan -7.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model53.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+3.4%
Pts+2.4
Units0.54

model shrunk 43% toward market (confidence 0.57)

lean
Colorado State @ Texas State
Colorado State +15.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.0%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.4%
Pts+2.6
Units0.86

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

lean
Ball State @ Bowling Green
Bowling Green -6
-110 at DraftKings
Model53.9%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.2%
Pts+2.9
Units1.49

model shrunk 55% toward market (confidence 0.45); push chance 2.4%

lean
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee
Delaware -1
-110 at Bovada
Model53.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.0%
Pts+2.0
Units1.35

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61); push chance 2.5%

lean
Colorado State @ Texas State
Colorado State ML
+490 at DraftKings
Model18.8%
Market15.8%
Edge+3.0%
Pts+3.4
Units0.55

model shrunk 47% toward market (confidence 0.53)

lean
Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina +1.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model53.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+2.9%
Pts+1.7
Units0.62

model shrunk 30% toward market (confidence 0.70)

lean
Utah @ Colorado
Utah ML
-750 at DraftKings
Model90.4%
Market87.6%
Edge+2.8%
Pts+4.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 38% toward market (confidence 0.62)

lean
North Carolina @ Duke
Duke ML
-155 at DraftKings
Model63.1%
Market60.4%
Edge+2.7%
Pts+1.7
Units1.48

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.65)

lean
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee
Delaware ML
-120 at DraftKings
Model56.4%
Market54.0%
Edge+2.4%
Pts+1.6
Units1.02

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61)

lean
Kentucky @ Oklahoma
Kentucky ML
+215 at Bovada
Model32.1%
Market29.8%
Edge+2.3%
Pts+1.6
Units0.13

model shrunk 35% toward market (confidence 0.65)

lean
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech ML
-340 at DraftKings
Model78.6%
Market76.4%
Edge+2.3%
Pts+1.8
Units1.51

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

All projections

302 games
MatchupMarginFair spread TotalHome winConf
Bluffton @ Mount State Joseph+33.3-33.352.698%0.50
Stephen F. Austin @ Nicholls-31.5+31.551.52%0.53
Austin Peay @ West Georgia-30.2+30.250.63%0.58
The Citadel @ Texas A&M+30.2-30.252.497%0.81
Florida State @ Miami+28.8-28.860.196%0.83
Moravian @ Susquehanna+28.6-28.651.596%0.50
Lane College @ Kentucky State+27.1-27.152.595%0.50
Kent State @ South Florida+27.0-27.046.495%0.42
Luther @ Lake Forest+27.0-27.052.695%0.50
New Mexico @ Hawai'i-26.8+26.843.05%0.75
South Dakota @ Murray State-26.1+26.152.35%0.83
Eastern Kentucky @ Tennessee Tech+25.7-25.751.695%0.61
Charlotte @ Temple+25.5-25.556.394%0.50
Kalamazoo @ Calvin+25.2-25.252.694%0.50
McNeese @ Northwestern State-25.2+25.252.36%0.73
Kutztown @ Millersville-25.0+25.051.16%0.50
Mary Hardin Baylor @ Texas Wesleyan-24.9+24.952.66%0.50
Portland State @ Northern Arizona+24.0-24.052.693%0.67
Holy Cross @ Harvard+23.9-23.951.593%0.78
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana Monroe-23.7+23.765.87%0.50
Arizona State @ Texas Tech+23.4-23.449.993%0.76
Utah @ Colorado-22.6+22.647.18%0.62
Florida A&M @ Jackson State+22.6-22.651.592%0.32
Northern Michigan @ Michigan Tech+22.5-22.551.192%0.50
Washington State @ Oregon State+22.5-22.544.592%0.71
Saint Anselm @ Bentley+22.4-22.451.592%0.50
Georgetown @ Colgate+22.2-22.251.892%0.78
Auburn @ Georgia+22.1-22.144.392%0.85
Waynesburg @ Case Western Reserve+21.5-21.552.691%0.50
Towson @ Campbell+21.4-21.451.291%0.93
Kentucky Wesleyan @ Ohio Dominican+21.2-21.252.691%0.50
Saginaw Valley State @ Wayne State (MI)-20.7+20.752.610%0.50
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi Valley State-20.2+20.250.710%0.73
VMI @ Wofford+20.0-20.050.789%0.91
Lackawanna @ West Chester+19.8-19.852.489%0.50
Duquesne @ Stonehill+19.3-19.352.189%0.88
Northwestern (MN) @ Westminster (MO)+18.9-18.952.688%0.50
Mass Maritime @ Fitchburg State-18.6+18.651.812%0.50
Albion @ Trine+18.5-18.552.588%0.50
Bridgewater State @ Dean-18.3+18.351.813%0.50
Nevada @ North Dakota State+18.2-18.238.987%0.83
WPI @ Springfield+17.8-17.851.787%0.50
Hampton @ Sacred Heart+17.7-17.752.087%0.62
Akron @ Miami (OH)+17.7-17.750.387%0.42
Merrimack @ Dartmouth+17.6-17.651.986%0.62
Montana State @ Eastern Washington-17.6+17.651.214%0.62
New Mexico Highlands @ CSU Pueblo+17.3-17.352.686%0.50
Post @ Franklin Pierce+17.1-17.151.586%0.50
Coast Guard @ MIT+17.0-17.051.886%0.50
Adams State @ Chadron State+16.9-16.952.685%0.50
Pittsburgh @ Boston College-16.5+16.539.615%0.78
Lincoln (PA) @ Johnson C. Smith+16.3-16.351.285%0.50
Southeastern Oklahoma State @ Northwestern (OK)-16.2+16.252.616%0.50
Guilford @ Hampden Sydney+16.0-16.051.884%0.50
Dubuque @ Simpson (IA)+15.8-15.852.584%0.50
Huntingdon @ North Carolina Wesleyan+15.8-15.852.684%0.50
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois-15.7+15.752.616%0.34
Northern Iowa @ Youngstown State+15.6-15.652.684%0.88
Maryville (TN) @ Trinity (TX)+15.5-15.552.683%0.50
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian+15.3-15.352.683%0.36
Ohio @ Sacramento State-15.2+15.245.917%0.65
North Central College @ Elmhurst-15.1+15.152.617%0.50
Florida @ Texas+14.9-14.955.682%0.78
Rhodes @ Centre+14.7-14.752.082%0.50
La Verne @ Redlands-14.7+14.752.618%0.50
Dickinson @ Franklin & Marshall+14.6-14.650.982%0.50
Georgia State @ James Madison+14.6-14.658.882%0.60
Monmouth @ New Hampshire-14.5+14.551.018%0.92
Fort Valley State @ Savannah State-14.3+14.351.719%0.50
UVA Wise @ Tusculum+14.3-14.351.281%0.50
Saint Norbert @ Benedictine (IL)+14.2-14.252.681%0.50
Otterbein @ Ohio Northern+14.1-14.152.381%0.50
Charleston Southern @ Clemson+14.1-14.151.781%0.50
Howard Payne @ Schreiner-13.9+13.952.619%0.50
Washington State Louis @ Kenyon-13.8+13.852.419%0.50
Idaho @ Montana+13.7-13.752.380%0.92
New Haven @ Robert Morris+13.5-13.552.080%0.72
FDU Florham @ Misericordia+13.4-13.451.080%0.50
Wake Forest @ California-13.3+13.353.520%0.67
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech+13.3-13.355.480%0.69
Central Arkansas @ Tarleton State+13.0-13.052.679%0.71
Wabash @ John Carroll+12.7-12.752.279%0.50
Colorado State @ Texas State+12.7-12.777.779%0.53
Savannah State @ Morehouse+12.4-12.452.678%0.50
Roanoke College @ Shenandoah+12.2-12.251.278%0.50
Elizabeth City State @ Fayetteville State+12.1-12.151.878%0.50
Presbyterian @ Stetson+12.0-12.052.677%0.80
Angelo State @ Midwestern State+11.9-11.952.677%0.50
Fresno State @ San Diego State-11.9+11.946.523%0.62
Wisconsin Oshkosh @ Wisconsin Eau Claire+11.9-11.951.677%0.50
Maine Maritime @ New England+11.8-11.850.777%0.50
Franklin @ Manchester+11.7-11.752.677%0.50
Erskine @ Chowan-11.7+11.749.723%0.50
Northwestern @ Michigan State-11.7+11.753.623%0.71
Edward Waters @ Benedict+11.1-11.151.476%0.50
Southwestern @ Berry+11.0-11.051.075%0.50
Northern Illinois @ Wyoming+11.0-11.036.175%0.53
Virginia Union @ Bowie State-11.0+11.051.925%0.50
Oberlin @ Wooster+11.0-11.052.675%0.50
Allen @ Clark Atlanta-10.8+10.851.025%0.50
Columbia @ Pennsylvania+10.8-10.852.475%0.59
Bryant @ Maine-10.7+10.751.225%0.72
San José State @ UTEP-10.7+10.742.225%0.47
Mississippi State @ LSU+10.7-10.760.975%0.76
American International @ Pace+10.6-10.652.275%0.50
Glenville State @ Concord+10.6-10.651.575%0.50
Fort Lewis @ Western Colorado+10.5-10.552.674%0.50
McDaniel @ Muhlenberg+10.4-10.452.174%0.50
Alvernia @ Albright+10.4-10.451.274%0.50
Notre Dame @ BYU-10.0+10.050.727%0.88
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan-9.9+9.939.827%0.57
Lehigh @ Cornell-9.9+9.951.727%0.65
Illinois Wesleyan @ Millikin-9.9+9.952.627%0.50
Adrian @ Hope+9.9-9.952.673%0.50
Oklahoma State @ Houston+9.9-9.961.773%0.52
UNC Pembroke @ Barton-9.8+9.849.927%0.50
LaGrange @ Brevard+9.8-9.851.073%0.50
Wisconsin Whitewater @ Wisconsin Stout-9.8+9.850.927%0.50
Baldwin Wallace @ Marietta-9.6+9.651.627%0.50
Bates @ Wesleyan (CT)+9.6-9.651.873%0.50
SUNY Cortland @ Alfred-9.5+9.551.728%0.50
Central College @ Nebraska Wesleyan-9.5+9.552.228%0.50
Crown @ Greenville+9.5-9.552.672%0.50
Hanover @ Anderson (IN)-9.5+9.552.628%0.50
Carroll (WI) @ Wheaton (IL)+9.4-9.452.672%0.50
Wisconsin @ UCLA+9.4-9.443.272%0.73
Widener @ Eastern+9.4-9.452.672%0.50
California (PA) @ Clarion+9.4-9.452.172%0.50
Monmouth (IL) @ Beloit-9.4+9.452.628%0.50
Ball State @ Bowling Green+9.1-9.146.272%0.45
Ferris State @ Grand Valley State+9.1-9.152.672%0.50
Alabama @ Tennessee-9.0+9.056.929%0.91
Missouri Southern State @ Nebraska Kearney+8.8-8.850.571%0.50
Washburn @ Central Missouri+8.7-8.752.671%0.50
Northwest Missouri State @ Fort Hays-8.7+8.752.629%0.50
Bethel (MN) @ Saint Olaf-8.6+8.650.530%0.50
West Virginia Wesleyan @ West Liberty+8.5-8.552.070%0.50
Idaho State @ Weber State-8.5+8.552.630%0.62
William Jewell @ Northeastern State+8.3-8.352.670%0.50
Concordia (WI) @ Rockford-8.0+8.052.631%0.50
Memphis @ Tulane-8.0+8.053.831%0.76
Linfield @ Whitworth-8.0+8.052.431%0.50
Pacific Lutheran @ Pacific (OR)-7.9+7.952.631%0.50
Davenport @ Roosevelt+7.8-7.852.669%0.50
Lakeland @ Concordia Chicago+7.8-7.852.669%0.50
Louisville @ Syracuse-7.8+7.861.331%0.58
Nebraska @ Oregon+7.7-7.755.669%0.92
Macalester @ Augsburg+7.5-7.551.568%0.50
Marist @ Drake-7.5+7.552.632%0.56
Navy @ UTSA+7.5-7.556.168%0.79
Christopher Newport @ Montclair State-7.3+7.351.932%0.50
Wisconsin Stevens Point @ Wisconsin La Crosse+7.2-7.251.767%0.50
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan-7.2+7.247.533%0.70
Rutgers @ Maryland+7.2-7.264.767%0.61
Juniata @ Lycoming+7.1-7.152.267%0.50
South Dakota State @ North Dakota-7.1+7.152.633%0.70
Abilene Christian @ North Alabama+7.0-7.052.667%0.86
Johns Hopkins @ Ursinus+7.0-7.051.067%0.50
Troy @ Louisiana+6.9-6.954.367%0.83
Kentucky @ Oklahoma+6.9-6.944.967%0.65
TCU @ Baylor+6.9-6.941.567%0.87
Edinboro @ Lock Haven+6.8-6.852.466%0.50
Wartburg @ Loras+6.8-6.852.666%0.50
Heidelberg @ Rose Hulman-6.7+6.752.634%0.50
Westminster (PA) @ Geneva+6.7-6.752.666%0.50
Kennesaw State @ Missouri State-6.6+6.652.134%0.63
Brown @ Princeton+6.5-6.551.766%0.74
Central Oklahoma @ Emporia State+6.5-6.552.666%0.50
Westgate Christian @ McMurry+6.5-6.552.666%0.10
Dayton @ Butler+6.4-6.452.665%0.46
Florida International @ Jacksonville State+6.4-6.441.265%0.85
Emory & Henry @ Carson Newman+6.3-6.351.465%0.50
Gardner-Webb @ UT Martin-6.3+6.351.735%0.64
Pomona Pitzer @ Cal Lutheran+6.2-6.252.665%0.50
Tulsa @ Rice-6.0+6.044.735%0.58
North Carolina @ Duke+6.0-6.049.365%0.65
Gustavus Adolphus @ Saint Scholastica-5.8+5.850.236%0.50
Endicott @ Western New England-5.8+5.851.736%0.50
Kansas @ Kansas State+5.8-5.855.564%0.92
Cal Poly @ Northern Colorado+5.8-5.852.664%0.92
Western New Mexico @ Sul Ross State+5.7-5.752.664%0.50
Charleston (WV) @ Frostburg State+5.7-5.751.764%0.50
Grambling @ Alabama A&M+5.7-5.751.064%0.60
Arkansas Monticello @ Ouachita Baptist+5.6-5.652.664%0.50
Southern Nazarene @ Southwestern Oklahoma State+5.6-5.652.664%0.50
Virginia @ SMU+5.6-5.653.764%0.85
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M+5.5-5.552.264%0.66
East Central @ Oklahoma Baptist-5.5+5.551.536%0.50
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion-5.4+5.446.437%0.70
Florida Atlantic @ Army+5.3-5.360.963%0.71
East Carolina @ UAB-5.2+5.244.337%0.76
Arkansas State @ Southern Mississippi-5.2+5.268.237%0.66
Puget Sound @ Willamette+5.1-5.152.663%0.50
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt+5.1-5.158.463%0.66
Elon @ Stanford-4.9+4.952.638%0.45
Central Connecticut @ Mercyhurst-4.9+4.951.838%0.94
Shorter @ North Greenville+4.8-4.852.162%0.50
Delta State @ Ferrum+4.7-4.751.762%0.50
Knox @ Cornell (IA)-4.7+4.752.238%0.50
Southern Virginia @ Methodist+4.4-4.451.861%0.50
George Fox @ Lewis & Clark+4.4-4.450.561%0.50
Assumption @ Southern Connecticut State-4.4+4.451.939%0.50
Valparaiso @ San Diego-4.4+4.452.639%0.53
Framingham State @ Westfield State-4.2+4.251.940%0.50
Kean @ Rowan+4.2-4.251.460%0.50
Henderson State @ Harding+4.2-4.252.660%0.50
Mercer @ Samford-4.1+4.152.640%0.88
Millsaps @ Sewanee-4.1+4.151.540%0.50
Salve Regina @ Merchant Marine+4.1-4.151.860%0.50
Rhode Island @ Yale+4.0-4.052.060%0.72
Villanova @ Fordham+4.0-4.051.760%0.87
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State+4.0-4.052.660%0.56
Newberry @ Mars Hill+4.0-4.051.360%0.50
Delaware Valley @ Stevenson+4.0-4.051.560%0.50
Randolph Macon @ Averett+4.0-4.052.560%0.50
Denison @ DePauw+3.9-3.952.660%0.50
Brockport @ Alfred State+3.9-3.951.760%0.50
Saint Vincent @ Saint Francis-3.9+3.951.140%0.10
SUNY Maritime @ Norwich+3.9-3.951.860%0.50
Hamilton @ Bowdoin+3.8-3.850.959%0.50
Grinnell @ Lawrence-3.8+3.851.641%0.50
Hendrix @ Texas Lutheran+3.8-3.851.959%0.50
North Park @ Carthage+3.6-3.652.659%0.50
Western Oregon @ UT Permian Basin+3.6-3.652.659%0.50
Lebanon Valley @ King's+3.6-3.651.659%0.50
Morehouse @ Howard-3.5+3.551.541%0.50
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston State+3.4-3.451.958%0.50
Catawba @ Anderson (SC)+3.4-3.452.658%0.50
Morgan State @ Tennessee State-3.3+3.352.642%0.78
Penn State @ Michigan+3.3-3.338.158%0.84
McKendree @ Missouri S&T-3.3+3.352.642%0.50
Coe @ Buena Vista+3.2-3.250.858%0.50
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee-3.2+3.251.242%0.61
Williams @ Middlebury-3.2+3.251.642%0.50
West Virginia State @ Wheeling+3.2-3.252.058%0.50
Illinois College @ Chicago-3.2+3.252.642%0.50
Austin @ Centenary (LA)-3.1+3.152.642%0.50
Martin Luther @ Minnesota Morris+3.1-3.150.958%0.50
Bloomsburg @ Shepherd+3.0-3.051.158%0.50
Virginia State @ Shaw+3.0-3.051.557%0.50
Slippery Rock @ IU Pennsylvania-3.0+3.052.543%0.50
Belhaven @ Greensboro+2.9-2.951.857%0.50
Findlay @ Hillsdale-2.9+2.952.643%0.50
Upper Iowa @ Southwest Baptist+2.8-2.852.657%0.50
Husson @ New England College+2.8-2.852.657%0.50
Ashland @ Thomas More-2.8+2.852.643%0.50
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois+2.8-2.852.657%0.87
UNLV @ Air Force+2.7-2.749.257%0.84
Washington @ Purdue+2.6-2.657.157%0.59
Wingate @ Lenoir Rhyne+2.5-2.551.456%0.50
Wittenberg @ Ohio Wesleyan+2.5-2.552.056%0.50
Carleton @ Hamline-2.3+2.352.644%0.50
Curry @ Nichols-2.3+2.351.744%0.50
UC Davis @ Southern Utah-2.3+2.352.644%0.70
Washington & Jefferson @ Allegheny+2.2-2.252.156%0.50
Southern Arkansas @ Arkansas Tech+2.2-2.252.656%0.50
Lamar @ SE Louisiana+2.2-2.251.556%0.92
Chapman @ Azusa Pacific+2.0-2.052.655%0.50
Concordia (MN) @ Saint John's (MN)+2.0-2.050.355%0.50
UMass Dartmouth @ Worcester State-2.0+2.051.645%0.50
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff+1.9-1.952.155%0.63
Trinity (CT) @ Tufts+1.8-1.851.555%0.50
Cincinnati @ West Virginia-1.8+1.869.746%0.62
The College of New Jersey @ William Paterson+1.8-1.852.054%0.50
Seton Hill @ Gannon+1.7-1.751.854%0.50
Hiram @ Grove City+1.7-1.752.254%0.50
Missouri Western @ Pittsburg State+1.7-1.752.654%0.50
Long Island @ Wagner-1.6+1.650.646%0.96
Northwood @ Lake Erie-1.6+1.652.646%0.50
Indianapolis @ Lincoln (MO)+1.5-1.552.654%0.50
Chicago State @ North Carolina A&T+1.4-1.452.654%0.45
Wisconsin River Falls @ Wisconsin Platteville+1.4-1.452.053%0.50
UAlbany @ Stony Brook+1.2-1.251.953%0.87
Apprentice School @ Keystone-1.2+1.251.647%0.50
Olivet @ Alma+1.1-1.152.653%0.50
Massachusetts @ Buffalo+1.1-1.140.653%0.63
Albany State @ Tuskegee-1.1+1.151.147%0.50
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Incarnate Word+1.0-1.052.653%0.40
Morehead State @ Davidson-0.9+0.951.348%0.77
Ohio State @ Indiana+0.9-0.952.752%0.90
Amherst @ Colby+0.8-0.851.052%0.50
Washington and Lee @ Bridgewater-0.8+0.850.948%0.50
East Stroudsburg @ Shippensburg-0.8+0.851.048%0.50
West Alabama @ West Florida-0.7+0.750.848%0.50
Western Connecticut State @ Catholic+0.7-0.751.552%0.50
Mount Union @ Capital+0.7-0.752.652%0.50
Missouri @ Mississippi+0.7-0.758.752%0.88
Colorado School of Mines @ Colorado Mesa-0.5+0.552.649%0.50
Whittier @ Claremont Mudd Scripps+0.5-0.552.651%0.50
West Texas @ Eastern New Mexico+0.5-0.552.651%0.50
Central Washington @ Texas A&M-Kingsville+0.5-0.552.651%0.50
Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina+0.4-0.453.651%0.70
Salisbury @ Vermont State Castleton+0.4-0.452.051%0.50
East Texas Baptist @ Hardin Simmons+0.3-0.352.651%0.50
Tiffin @ Walsh-0.3+0.352.049%0.50
Wisconsin Lutheran @ Aurora-0.2+0.252.649%0.50
Black Hills State @ South Dakota Mines+0.2-0.252.651%0.50
Bluefield State @ Winston-Salem State+0.2-0.251.350%0.50
Carnegie Mellon @ Gettysburg+0.2-0.250.850%0.50
Lafayette @ Bucknell+0.2-0.252.250%0.81
Muskingum @ Wilmington (OH)+0.1-0.152.650%0.50
Truman State @ Quincy-0.0+0.052.650%0.50