Heads up. Treat this board with suspicion: 31 of 47 spread picks are on the favourite. A model that disagrees with the market in one direction all week is usually miscalibrated rather than right.

College Football Picks

2026 · Week 5 · updated 03 Oct 2026, 17:03 UTC
Bets
113
82 strong
Staked
282.25u
fractional Kelly
Expected
+46.84u
if the model is right
Median edge
7.2%
over the no-vig price

Recommended bets

What these numbers mean
Tier
How much conviction is behind the bet — strong, play or lean, set by the size of the edge.
Bet
The side and number to take, at the price and book shown beside it.
Model
The model's probability this bet wins. Already shrunk toward the market price according to how well-covered the two teams are, so a thinly-rated game shows a number close to the market's.
Market
The same probability implied by the sportsbook price, with the bookmaker's margin removed — what the market really thinks, rather than what the posted odds say.
Edge
Model minus Market: how much better the model rates this bet than the price implies. Anything under a couple of points is noise.
Pts
The same disagreement measured in points rather than probability — how far the model's number sits from the market's on the spread or total.
Units
Suggested stake, where one unit is 1% of bankroll. Sized by quarter-Kelly and capped, so a large edge on an uncertain game still gets a small bet.
113 bets
strong
Navy @ Air Force
Over 45
-110 at Bovada
Model80.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+30.2%
Pts+13.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 12% toward market (confidence 0.88); push chance 1.7%

strong
Marshall @ James Madison
James Madison -15.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model75.0%
Market53.1%
Edge+21.9%
Pts+15.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Louisville @ NC State
Over 56.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model73.2%
Market51.5%
Edge+21.7%
Pts+11.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Temple @ South Florida
Over 48.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model71.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+21.7%
Pts+12.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

strong
Wyoming @ North Dakota State
North Dakota State -16.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model68.9%
Market50.6%
Edge+18.3%
Pts+10.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

strong
Indiana @ Rutgers
Over 56.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model67.6%
Market50.7%
Edge+16.8%
Pts+8.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 28% toward market (confidence 0.72)

strong
UTEP @ New Mexico
New Mexico -23
-110 at Bovada
Model66.2%
Market50.6%
Edge+15.6%
Pts+13.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52); push chance 1.7%

strong
Virginia @ Florida State
Virginia -1
-110 at Bovada
Model66.1%
Market50.6%
Edge+15.5%
Pts+8.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 19% toward market (confidence 0.81); push chance 2.2%

strong
Arkansas State @ Louisiana
Over 48.5
-110 at Bovada
Model66.3%
Market51.5%
Edge+14.9%
Pts+7.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
Virginia @ Florida State
Virginia ML
-118 at DraftKings
Model68.5%
Market54.2%
Edge+14.3%
Pts+7.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 19% toward market (confidence 0.81)

strong
Memphis @ Charlotte
Over 51.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model65.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+14.3%
Pts+9.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 43% toward market (confidence 0.57)

strong
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts
Massachusetts -5.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.9%
Market50.6%
Edge+13.3%
Pts+11.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Purdue @ Illinois
Over 61.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model64.6%
Market51.5%
Edge+13.1%
Pts+9.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Fresno State @ Washington State
Fresno State +2
-110 at Bovada
Model63.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+13.0%
Pts+7.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75); push chance 2.2%

strong
Western Michigan @ Buffalo
Under 46.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.7%
Market50.7%
Edge+13.0%
Pts+6.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 32% toward market (confidence 0.68)

strong
Louisiana Monroe @ South Alabama
South Alabama -13.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.4%
Market50.6%
Edge+12.8%
Pts+11.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

strong
Texas State @ San Diego State
Over 57.5
-110 at Bovada
Model62.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+12.7%
Pts+7.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

strong
Louisiana Monroe @ South Alabama
Over 56.5
-110 at Bovada
Model64.1%
Market51.5%
Edge+12.6%
Pts+9.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

strong
Old Dominion @ Georgia State
Georgia State ML
-105 at Bovada
Model64.5%
Market52.2%
Edge+12.4%
Pts+11.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 52% toward market (confidence 0.48)

strong
Louisville @ NC State
NC State ML
+190 at Bovada
Model47.8%
Market35.7%
Edge+12.1%
Pts+6.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Virginia @ Florida State
Over 51.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.8%
Pts+5.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 19% toward market (confidence 0.81)

strong
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) -10.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model63.6%
Market51.9%
Edge+11.7%
Pts+12.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

strong
Cincinnati @ Arizona
Over 55.5
-110 at Bovada
Model61.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.7%
Pts+5.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 18% toward market (confidence 0.82)

strong
Temple @ South Florida
South Florida -5.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.5%
Pts+7.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

strong
Fresno State @ Washington State
Fresno State ML
+102 at DraftKings
Model59.5%
Market48.0%
Edge+11.5%
Pts+6.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Arkansas @ Texas A&M
Over 50
-110 at Bovada
Model62.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+11.3%
Pts+5.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 33% toward market (confidence 0.67); push chance 2.7%

strong
Army @ Louisiana Tech
Over 46.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model62.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+11.2%
Pts+6.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

strong
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh ML
+160 at Bovada
Model52.7%
Market41.5%
Edge+11.2%
Pts+6.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
Texas State @ San Diego State
San Diego State +9.5
-110 at Bovada
Model61.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.1%
Pts+7.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

strong
Old Dominion @ Georgia State
Georgia State -2.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.1%
Pts+9.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 52% toward market (confidence 0.48)

strong
Wyoming @ North Dakota State
Under 44.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+11.0%
Pts+4.9
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

strong
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts
Massachusetts ML
-195 at Bovada
Model76.1%
Market66.0%
Edge+10.1%
Pts+10.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Miami @ Clemson
Under 48.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model61.6%
Market51.5%
Edge+10.1%
Pts+4.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

strong
Michigan @ Minnesota
Minnesota ML
+200 at DraftKings
Model41.1%
Market31.4%
Edge+9.8%
Pts+5.3
Units2.93

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

strong
Cincinnati @ Arizona
Cincinnati ML
+240 at Bovada
Model38.4%
Market28.7%
Edge+9.7%
Pts+5.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 18% toward market (confidence 0.82)

strong
Ohio State @ Iowa
Iowa ML
+470 at DraftKings
Model25.0%
Market15.5%
Edge+9.5%
Pts+6.1
Units2.26

model shrunk 13% toward market (confidence 0.87)

strong
Texas State @ San Diego State
San Diego State ML
+295 at DraftKings
Model39.0%
Market29.5%
Edge+9.5%
Pts+6.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

strong
UCF @ Houston
UCF ML
+335 at Bovada
Model29.5%
Market20.2%
Edge+9.4%
Pts+7.5
Units2.12

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

strong
Auburn @ Tennessee
Under 54
-110 at Bovada
Model60.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+9.3%
Pts+4.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 20% toward market (confidence 0.80); push chance 2.8%

strong
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina
Over 53.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.3%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.3%
Pts+5.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61)

strong
Oregon State @ Colorado State
Under 62.5
-110 at Bovada
Model59.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+9.2%
Pts+5.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61)

strong
Ohio State @ Iowa
Iowa +14.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.5%
Market50.6%
Edge+8.9%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 13% toward market (confidence 0.87)

strong
Fresno State @ Washington State
Under 45.5
-110 at Bovada
Model60.3%
Market51.5%
Edge+8.8%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

strong
Utah State @ Boise State
Boise State -18.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.1%
Market51.2%
Edge+8.8%
Pts+5.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 33% toward market (confidence 0.67)

strong
Boston College @ SMU
Under 55
-110 at Bovada
Model59.5%
Market50.7%
Edge+8.7%
Pts+3.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 21% toward market (confidence 0.79); push chance 2.8%

strong
Washington @ USC
USC -7.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model60.6%
Market51.9%
Edge+8.7%
Pts+5.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 33% toward market (confidence 0.67)

strong
Syracuse @ Connecticut
Connecticut ML
+215 at DraftKings
Model39.5%
Market31.1%
Edge+8.5%
Pts+6.8
Units2.86

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Texas Tech @ Colorado
Texas Tech -13.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.1%
Market50.0%
Edge+8.1%
Pts+5.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

strong
Purdue @ Illinois
Illinois -9.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+8.0%
Pts+6.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Kentucky @ South Carolina
Over 52.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.4%
Market51.5%
Edge+7.9%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

strong
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh +1.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.6%
Pts+4.2
Units2.76

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
Auburn @ Tennessee
Tennessee -6.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+7.5%
Pts+3.8
Units2.67

model shrunk 20% toward market (confidence 0.80)

strong
Temple @ South Florida
South Florida ML
-220 at Bovada
Model74.9%
Market67.4%
Edge+7.5%
Pts+5.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

strong
UTSA @ Rice
Over 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.2%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.4%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 46% toward market (confidence 0.54)

strong
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Under 53.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.1%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.4%
Pts+3.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

strong
Michigan @ Minnesota
Minnesota +6.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.9%
Market50.6%
Edge+7.3%
Pts+3.8
Units2.91

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78)

strong
Michigan @ Minnesota
Under 43
-110 at Bovada
Model59.4%
Market52.2%
Edge+7.2%
Pts+3.2
Units3.00

model shrunk 22% toward market (confidence 0.78); push chance 2.8%

strong
San José State @ Hawai'i
Under 51
-110 at Bovada
Model57.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.2%
Pts+3.4
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73); push chance 2.9%

strong
BYU @ TCU
TCU ML
+190 at Bovada
Model39.3%
Market32.3%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+3.5
Units1.85

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85)

strong
Marshall @ James Madison
Over 55.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.8%
Market50.7%
Edge+7.0%
Pts+3.5
Units2.82

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Syracuse @ Connecticut
Connecticut +6.5
-110 at Bovada
Model56.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.9%
Pts+5.4
Units2.38

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

strong
Louisville @ NC State
NC State +3
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.9%
Pts+3.7
Units3.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75); push chance 2.4%

strong
UCF @ Houston
UCF +10.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.9%
Pts+4.6
Units2.35

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

strong
Arkansas State @ Louisiana
Louisiana -6
-110 at Bovada
Model57.4%
Market50.6%
Edge+6.8%
Pts+3.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73); push chance 2.4%

strong
Miami @ Clemson
Miami -15.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.7%
Pts+3.6
Units2.26

model shrunk 24% toward market (confidence 0.76)

strong
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Over 61.5
-110 at Bovada
Model58.1%
Market51.5%
Edge+6.6%
Pts+2.6
Units3.00

model shrunk 14% toward market (confidence 0.86)

strong
Memphis @ Charlotte
Memphis -18.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model59.0%
Market52.5%
Edge+6.6%
Pts+4.8
Units3.00

model shrunk 43% toward market (confidence 0.57)

strong
Ohio @ Kent State
Ohio -3.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.5%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.5%
Pts+6.7
Units2.19

model shrunk 60% toward market (confidence 0.40)

strong
Middle Tennessee @ Kansas
Middle Tennessee +21.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.7%
Market51.2%
Edge+6.4%
Pts+3.6
Units2.77

model shrunk 28% toward market (confidence 0.72)

strong
Maryland @ Nebraska
Nebraska -14.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.3%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.3%
Pts+4.1
Units2.05

model shrunk 38% toward market (confidence 0.62)

strong
Akron @ Central Michigan
Under 47.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model57.0%
Market50.7%
Edge+6.2%
Pts+5.4
Units2.40

model shrunk 60% toward market (confidence 0.40)

strong
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts
Under 49
-110 at Bovada
Model56.9%
Market50.7%
Edge+6.2%
Pts+4.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52); push chance 2.8%

strong
Baylor @ Arizona State
Baylor ML
+155 at Bovada
Model43.9%
Market37.8%
Edge+6.1%
Pts+3.3
Units1.92

model shrunk 23% toward market (confidence 0.77)

strong
Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Over 49.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model58.2%
Market52.2%
Edge+6.0%
Pts+3.0
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Baylor @ Arizona State
Under 48.5
-110 at Bovada
Model56.0%
Market50.0%
Edge+6.0%
Pts+2.7
Units1.89

model shrunk 23% toward market (confidence 0.77)

strong
Marshall @ James Madison
James Madison ML
-800 at DraftKings
Model95.0%
Market89.1%
Edge+6.0%
Pts+12.3
Units3.00

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

strong
Cincinnati @ Arizona
Cincinnati +7
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+6.0%
Pts+3.0
Units2.95

model shrunk 18% toward market (confidence 0.82); push chance 2.4%

strong
West Virginia @ Iowa State
Iowa State -3
-110 at Bovada
Model55.9%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.9%
Pts+4.3
Units2.56

model shrunk 45% toward market (confidence 0.55); push chance 2.4%

strong
Liberty @ Delaware
Liberty -7
-110 at Bovada
Model55.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.8%
Pts+3.7
Units2.52

model shrunk 37% toward market (confidence 0.63); push chance 2.4%

strong
Oregon State @ Colorado State
Colorado State ML
+210 at DraftKings
Model37.6%
Market31.8%
Edge+5.8%
Pts+4.0
Units1.96

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61)

strong
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Notre Dame -21
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.7%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.7%
Pts+3.6
Units2.46

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64); push chance 2.4%

strong
Stanford @ Wake Forest
Wake Forest -14.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model55.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.6%
Pts+3.4
Units1.68

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

play
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Under 43.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.2%
Market50.7%
Edge+5.5%
Pts+2.7
Units2.01

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

play
West Virginia @ Iowa State
Iowa State ML
-145 at Bovada
Model63.4%
Market58.2%
Edge+5.2%
Pts+4.0
Units2.58

model shrunk 45% toward market (confidence 0.55)

play
Oregon State @ Colorado State
Colorado State +7
-110 at Bovada
Model55.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+5.2%
Pts+3.5
Units2.22

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61); push chance 2.4%

play
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State
New Mexico State ML
-120 at Bovada
Model57.8%
Market52.9%
Edge+4.9%
Pts+3.3
Units1.77

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

play
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Michigan State ML
+305 at Bovada
Model27.2%
Market22.5%
Edge+4.8%
Pts+3.4
Units0.84

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

play
Louisiana Monroe @ South Alabama
South Alabama ML
-575 at DraftKings
Model89.3%
Market84.5%
Edge+4.7%
Pts+8.5
Units3.00

model shrunk 50% toward market (confidence 0.50)

play
BYU @ TCU
TCU +6
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.6%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.6%
Pts+2.2
Units1.89

model shrunk 15% toward market (confidence 0.85); push chance 2.5%

play
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina +2
-110 at Bovada
Model55.2%
Market50.6%
Edge+4.6%
Pts+3.0
Units2.20

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61); push chance 2.4%

play
California @ UNLV
UNLV ML
-120 at DraftKings
Model57.4%
Market52.9%
Edge+4.5%
Pts+2.8
Units1.55

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

play
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State
New Mexico State -1.5
-110 at Bovada
Model54.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.4%
Pts+3.0
Units1.07

model shrunk 40% toward market (confidence 0.60)

play
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina ML
+110 at Bovada
Model50.4%
Market46.0%
Edge+4.4%
Pts+2.9
Units1.31

model shrunk 39% toward market (confidence 0.61)

play
Toledo @ Ball State
Toledo -21
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.4%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.4%
Pts+3.9
Units1.74

model shrunk 55% toward market (confidence 0.45); push chance 2.4%

play
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)
Over 41.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model56.5%
Market52.2%
Edge+4.3%
Pts+3.5
Units2.17

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

play
Florida @ Missouri
Florida -5.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+4.2%
Pts+2.0
Units0.94

model shrunk 18% toward market (confidence 0.82)

play
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) ML
-470 at DraftKings
Model87.5%
Market83.4%
Edge+4.1%
Pts+8.1
Units3.00

model shrunk 58% toward market (confidence 0.42)

play
Ohio @ Kent State
Ohio ML
-175 at DraftKings
Model67.9%
Market63.9%
Edge+4.0%
Pts+4.5
Units2.91

model shrunk 60% toward market (confidence 0.40)

play
Baylor @ Arizona State
Baylor +4
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.5%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.9%
Pts+2.0
Units1.84

model shrunk 23% toward market (confidence 0.77); push chance 2.5%

play
Purdue @ Illinois
Illinois ML
-370 at Bovada
Model80.9%
Market77.2%
Edge+3.7%
Pts+4.1
Units2.53

model shrunk 48% toward market (confidence 0.52)

play
San José State @ Hawai'i
San José State ML
+125 at Bovada
Model46.0%
Market42.4%
Edge+3.6%
Pts+2.0
Units0.69

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

play
California @ UNLV
UNLV -1.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model54.2%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.6%
Pts+2.2
Units0.94

model shrunk 34% toward market (confidence 0.66)

lean
Penn State @ Northwestern
Penn State ML
-130 at Bovada
Model58.3%
Market55.0%
Edge+3.3%
Pts+1.8
Units1.00

model shrunk 25% toward market (confidence 0.75)

lean
Arkansas @ Texas A&M
Texas A&M -14
-110 at DraftKings
Model53.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+3.2%
Pts+1.9
Units1.16

model shrunk 33% toward market (confidence 0.67); push chance 2.5%

lean
Boston College @ SMU
Boston College +21.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model53.2%
Market50.0%
Edge+3.2%
Pts+1.6
Units0.41

model shrunk 21% toward market (confidence 0.79)

lean
San José State @ Hawai'i
San José State +3
-110 at Bovada
Model53.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.0%
Pts+1.7
Units1.38

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73); push chance 2.5%

lean
Western Michigan @ Buffalo
Western Michigan -13
-110 at Bovada
Model53.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+3.0%
Pts+1.8
Units1.37

model shrunk 32% toward market (confidence 0.68); push chance 2.5%

lean
Indiana @ Rutgers
Indiana -24
-110 at Bovada
Model53.6%
Market50.6%
Edge+2.9%
Pts+1.6
Units1.34

model shrunk 28% toward market (confidence 0.72); push chance 2.5%

lean
Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Georgia -25.5
-110 at DraftKings
Model52.8%
Market50.0%
Edge+2.8%
Pts+1.6
Units0.20

model shrunk 31% toward market (confidence 0.69)

lean
Arkansas State @ Louisiana
Louisiana ML
-230 at DraftKings
Model72.5%
Market69.9%
Edge+2.6%
Pts+1.7
Units2.32

model shrunk 27% toward market (confidence 0.73)

lean
Texas Tech @ Colorado
Texas Tech ML
-575 at Bovada
Model86.5%
Market84.0%
Edge+2.5%
Pts+2.8
Units2.15

model shrunk 36% toward market (confidence 0.64)

lean
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State ML
+190 at Bovada
Model35.6%
Market33.3%
Edge+2.3%
Pts+1.2
Units0.44

model shrunk 14% toward market (confidence 0.86)

lean
Auburn @ Tennessee
Tennessee ML
-250 at DraftKings
Model73.4%
Market71.3%
Edge+2.1%
Pts+1.3
Units1.76

model shrunk 20% toward market (confidence 0.80)

All projections

304 games
MatchupMarginFair spread TotalHome winConf
Wayne State (MI) @ Grand Valley State+44.8-44.852.9100%0.50
Lawrence @ Lake Forest+41.2-41.252.9100%0.50
The Citadel @ South Carolina State+41.0-41.052.999%0.20
New Haven @ Austin Peay+38.4-38.452.999%0.66
UTEP @ New Mexico+37.0-37.048.799%0.52
McNeese @ LSU+33.6-33.652.998%0.73
Marshall @ James Madison+32.0-32.059.298%0.69
Murray State @ North Dakota+31.9-31.952.998%0.95
CSU Pueblo @ Adams State-31.3+31.352.93%0.50
Kentucky Wesleyan @ Northwood+30.9-30.952.997%0.50
Northwestern State @ Lamar+28.8-28.852.996%0.99
Oberlin @ DePauw+28.6-28.652.796%0.50
Vanderbilt @ Georgia+27.1-27.153.295%0.69
Wyoming @ North Dakota State+26.8-26.839.695%0.78
Chicago State @ Tarleton State+26.5-26.552.995%0.45
Ferris State @ Northern Michigan-26.2+26.252.45%0.50
Indiana @ Rutgers-25.9+25.965.25%0.72
Texas Southern @ Florida Atlantic+25.3-25.352.994%0.68
Rhodes @ Millsaps+25.2-25.252.994%0.50
Eureka @ Wisconsin Lutheran+25.1-25.152.994%0.50
Toledo @ Ball State-24.9+24.950.06%0.45
Keystone @ Mary Hardin Baylor+24.8-24.852.894%0.50
Louisiana Monroe @ South Alabama+24.8-24.866.294%0.50
Notre Dame @ North Carolina-24.6+24.645.76%0.64
Utah State @ Boise State+24.4-24.449.994%0.67
Memphis @ Charlotte-24.3+24.361.06%0.57
Nicholls @ Houston Christian+24.1-24.152.993%0.33
Saint Thomas Mn @ Presbyterian-23.8+23.852.97%0.92
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State-23.7+23.752.97%0.89
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)+23.6-23.645.793%0.42
North Park @ Wheaton (IL)+23.4-23.452.993%0.50
Clark Atlanta @ Benedict+23.2-23.252.993%0.50
Southwestern Oklahoma State @ Henderson State+22.2-22.252.992%0.50
Millersville @ Shepherd+21.9-21.952.991%0.50
UVA Wise @ Newberry+21.7-21.752.991%0.50
Fordham @ Lehigh+21.7-21.752.991%0.62
Concordia State Paul @ Minnesota State+21.6-21.652.191%0.50
Montana State @ Idaho-21.5+21.552.99%0.61
William Paterson @ Christopher Newport+21.1-21.152.891%0.50
Buffalo State @ Rochester (NY)+20.8-20.852.990%0.50
Towson @ Monmouth+20.4-20.452.790%0.92
North Carolina A&T @ Bryant+20.4-20.452.990%0.75
Gannon @ Slippery Rock+20.3-20.352.990%0.50
Allegheny @ Thiel-20.1+20.152.910%0.50
Boston College @ SMU+19.9-19.950.989%0.79
Concordia (MN) @ Saint Scholastica-19.9+19.952.911%0.50
Allen @ Savannah State-19.4+19.452.911%0.50
Minnesota Duluth @ Southwest Minnesota State-19.1+19.152.712%0.50
Miami @ Clemson-19.1+19.143.312%0.76
Texas Tech @ Colorado-18.7+18.749.512%0.64
Maryland @ Nebraska+18.6-18.654.088%0.62
Dubuque @ Central College+18.6-18.652.788%0.50
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois+18.2-18.252.987%0.60
Mercer @ VMI-18.0+18.052.913%0.90
Stanford @ Wake Forest+17.9-17.954.687%0.66
Wagner @ Central Connecticut+17.4-17.452.986%0.98
Middle Tennessee @ Kansas+17.4-17.451.686%0.72
Merrimack @ Yale+17.0-17.052.886%0.71
Franklin @ Rose Hulman+17.0-17.052.986%0.50
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin+17.0-17.052.986%0.38
Hilbert @ Rensselaer+16.9-16.952.986%0.50
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts+16.9-16.944.685%0.52
Indiana State @ South Dakota+16.2-16.252.984%0.80
Purdue @ Illinois+16.1-16.171.384%0.52
Saint Vincent @ Waynesburg-16.0+16.052.916%0.50
Arkansas @ Texas A&M+15.9-15.956.184%0.67
Pacific (OR) @ Whitworth+15.5-15.552.983%0.50
UT Rio Grande Valley @ East Texas A&M-15.4+15.452.917%0.59
Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina-15.3+15.352.917%0.69
Nelson (TX) @ Howard Payne+15.2-15.252.983%0.10
Northwestern (OK) @ Southern Arkansas+15.2-15.252.983%0.50
Missouri S&T @ Upper Iowa+15.1-15.151.983%0.50
Western Michigan @ Buffalo-15.0+15.039.417%0.68
Elizabeth City State @ Virginia Union+15.0-15.052.983%0.50
Johnson C. Smith @ Bluefield State-15.0+15.052.917%0.50
Greenville @ Westminster (MO)+14.9-14.952.982%0.50
Elon @ New Hampshire-14.9+14.952.918%0.58
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech-14.7+14.752.918%0.82
Augustana (IL) @ North Central College+14.4-14.452.982%0.50
Belhaven @ Brevard+14.3-14.352.981%0.50
Gettysburg @ Franklin & Marshall+14.3-14.352.981%0.50
Dayton @ Drake-14.2+14.252.919%0.47
Moravian @ Western Connecticut State+13.9-13.952.981%0.50
Fitchburg State @ Framingham State+13.7-13.752.980%0.50
UTSA @ Rice-13.7+13.760.520%0.54
Missouri Western @ Emporia State+13.7-13.752.980%0.50
Bloomsburg @ Lackawanna-13.6+13.652.920%0.50
Washington @ USC+13.6-13.660.080%0.67
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State+13.6-13.652.980%0.66
UMass Dartmouth @ Mass Maritime+13.4-13.452.580%0.50
Carthage @ Illinois Wesleyan+13.3-13.352.980%0.50
Wisconsin Stevens Point @ Wisconsin Eau Claire+13.3-13.351.880%0.50
Lane College @ Miles+13.2-13.252.980%0.50
Missouri Southern State @ Fort Hays+12.9-12.952.979%0.50
Redlands @ Azusa Pacific+12.8-12.852.979%0.50
Temple @ South Florida+12.8-12.861.479%0.66
Wisconsin Platteville @ Wisconsin Stout-12.6+12.651.321%0.50
Arkansas Tech @ Southeastern Oklahoma State+12.5-12.552.978%0.50
Findlay @ Ohio Dominican-12.5+12.552.922%0.50
Old Dominion @ Georgia State+12.4-12.452.878%0.48
Carroll (WI) @ Millikin-12.4+12.452.922%0.50
Glenville State @ Fairmont State+12.4-12.452.978%0.50
Lewis & Clark @ Puget Sound-12.4+12.452.922%0.50
Worcester State @ Bridgewater State+12.2-12.252.978%0.50
Delaware State @ UAlbany+12.2-12.252.978%0.87
Kutztown @ Shippensburg-12.0+12.052.923%0.50
Pace @ Post-11.8+11.852.923%0.50
Geneva @ Washington & Jefferson+11.5-11.552.976%0.50
Lyon @ Texas Lutheran+11.5-11.552.176%0.50
UFTL @ Hardin Simmons+11.5-11.552.976%0.10
New England College @ Curry+11.4-11.452.976%0.50
Alcorn State @ Grambling+11.3-11.352.976%0.60
Shorter @ Delta State-11.2+11.252.124%0.50
Case Western Reserve @ Westminster (PA)-11.2+11.252.924%0.50
Tusculum @ Mars Hill+10.9-10.952.975%0.50
East Texas Baptist @ Louisiana Christian-10.8+10.852.925%0.50
Liberty @ Delaware-10.7+10.750.925%0.63
Western New England @ Husson-10.7+10.752.925%0.50
Central Oklahoma @ Central Missouri+10.7-10.752.975%0.50
Endicott @ New England-10.6+10.652.925%0.50
Ripon @ Cornell (IA)-10.4+10.452.926%0.50
Jamestown @ Of Mary+10.4-10.450.674%0.50
Salisbury @ The College of New Jersey-10.4+10.452.926%0.50
Wartburg @ Nebraska Wesleyan-10.3+10.352.926%0.50
Auburn @ Tennessee+10.3-10.349.774%0.80
Ohio @ Kent State-10.2+10.248.726%0.40
Alfred State @ SUNY Morrisville-10.2+10.252.926%0.50
Ohio State @ Iowa-10.1+10.145.226%0.87
Alma @ Trine+10.1-10.152.974%0.50
Arkansas State @ Louisiana+10.1-10.156.374%0.73
Centenary (LA) @ Austin+10.0-10.052.973%0.50
Bridgewater @ Randolph Macon+10.0-10.052.973%0.50
Hampden Sydney @ Shenandoah+9.8-9.852.973%0.50
Marist @ Stetson-9.7+9.752.927%0.57
Loras @ Coe-9.4+9.452.928%0.50
Wofford @ Furman+9.4-9.452.972%0.69
Virginia @ Florida State-9.2+9.256.528%0.81
Northern Colorado @ Montana+8.9-8.952.971%0.94
Chadron State @ Colorado Mesa+8.9-8.952.971%0.50
Akron @ Central Michigan+8.9-8.941.871%0.40
Michigan State @ Wisconsin+8.7-8.740.571%0.69
Crown @ Minnesota Morris+8.7-8.752.971%0.50
Sacred Heart @ Maine-8.6+8.652.929%0.69
Davidson @ San Diego+8.6-8.652.970%0.80
Erskine @ Valdosta State+8.5-8.552.970%0.50
Michigan Tech @ Roosevelt+8.5-8.552.970%0.50
Cornell @ Georgetown-8.5+8.552.930%0.81
Maryville (TN) @ Centre+8.4-8.452.970%0.50
Southern Virginia @ Greensboro+8.4-8.452.970%0.50
Saint John Fisher @ Brockport+8.4-8.452.970%0.50
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky-8.3+8.352.930%0.87
LaGrange @ North Carolina Wesleyan+8.2-8.252.970%0.50
Howard @ Hampton-8.1+8.152.931%0.94
Wooster @ Ohio Wesleyan+8.1-8.152.969%0.50
SUNY Maritime @ Coast Guard+8.1-8.152.969%0.50
Alabama A&M @ Jackson State+8.1-8.152.969%0.31
Chowan @ West Alabama+7.9-7.952.969%0.50
Saint Francis @ Hiram+7.8-7.852.969%0.10
Bethel (MN) @ Saint John's (MN)+7.8-7.849.369%0.50
Roanoke College @ Guilford-7.7+7.752.931%0.50
IU Pennsylvania @ Edinboro-7.6+7.652.932%0.50
Florida @ Missouri-7.5+7.555.532%0.82
Dean @ Plymouth State+7.5-7.552.968%0.50
Bemidji State @ Northern State+7.5-7.552.968%0.50
Whittier @ Chapman+7.5-7.552.968%0.50
Campbell @ North Carolina Central-7.4+7.452.932%0.81
Hope @ Olivet-7.4+7.452.932%0.50
Pittsburg State @ Nebraska Kearney+7.4-7.452.468%0.50
Mount Union @ Muskingum-7.3+7.352.932%0.50
West Virginia @ Iowa State+7.3-7.352.568%0.55
Holy Cross @ William & Mary+7.3-7.352.968%0.93
Chicago @ Beloit-7.3+7.352.932%0.50
Eastern Washington @ UC Davis+7.2-7.252.967%0.67
La Verne @ Pomona Pitzer-7.1+7.152.933%0.50
George Fox @ Linfield+7.1-7.152.967%0.50
South Dakota State @ Illinois State+7.0-7.052.967%0.35
Merchant Marine @ MIT+7.0-7.052.967%0.50
Cal Lutheran @ Claremont Mudd Scripps-7.0+7.052.933%0.50
Carnegie Mellon @ McDaniel-6.7+6.752.934%0.50
Minnesota State Moorhead @ Minot State+6.6-6.650.466%0.50
Bethany (WV) @ Grove City+6.6-6.652.966%0.50
Anderson (IN) @ Bluffton-6.4+6.452.434%0.50
Shaw @ Bowie State-6.4+6.452.934%0.50
Macalester @ Hamline-6.3+6.351.935%0.50
Harding @ East Central-6.2+6.252.935%0.50
Tuskegee @ Morehouse-6.2+6.252.935%0.50
Colgate @ Harvard+6.2-6.252.965%0.74
UCF @ Houston+5.9-5.953.164%0.60
Princeton @ Columbia-5.8+5.852.836%0.77
Arkansas Monticello @ Southern Nazarene-5.8+5.852.936%0.50
Samford @ UAB+5.7-5.752.964%0.73
Alabama @ Mississippi State-5.7+5.764.636%0.86
Springfield @ Salve Regina+5.6-5.652.964%0.50
Muhlenberg @ Ursinus+5.6-5.652.964%0.50
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth+5.6-5.652.964%0.60
Winona State @ Wayne State (NE)+5.6-5.650.964%0.50
Lincoln (MO) @ Southwest Baptist+5.5-5.552.964%0.50
Fresno State @ Washington State-5.5+5.540.937%0.75
Virginia State @ Lincoln (PA)-5.4+5.452.937%0.50
Northwestern (MN) @ Martin Luther+5.3-5.352.063%0.50
SUNY Cortland @ Utica-5.3+5.352.937%0.50
Williams @ Trinity (CT)+5.3-5.352.963%0.50
Wabash @ Denison+5.3-5.352.963%0.50
Mount State Joseph @ Hanover-5.2+5.252.737%0.50
Clarion @ Lock Haven-5.2+5.252.937%0.50
Alfred @ Hartwick-5.1+5.152.937%0.50
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern-5.1+5.152.938%0.70
Catholic @ Lycoming+5.0-5.052.962%0.50
Youngstown State @ Southern Illinois-5.0+5.052.938%0.88
Sioux Falls @ Augustana (SD)+4.9-4.951.462%0.50
West Texas @ Texas A&M-Kingsville+4.8-4.849.362%0.50
Augsburg @ Saint Olaf-4.8+4.851.538%0.50
Wilkes @ Juniata-4.6+4.652.939%0.50
Walsh @ Thomas More-4.6+4.652.939%0.50
Calvin @ Adrian-4.5+4.552.939%0.50
Hendrix @ Schreiner-4.5+4.552.939%0.50
Ouachita Baptist @ Oklahoma Baptist-4.5+4.552.939%0.50
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State+4.5-4.558.261%0.60
Indianapolis @ William Jewell+4.4-4.452.961%0.50
Davenport @ Saginaw Valley State+4.3-4.352.961%0.50
Southwestern @ Sewanee+4.3-4.352.961%0.50
Kentucky State @ Edward Waters-4.2+4.252.940%0.50
Kenyon @ Wittenberg+4.2-4.252.860%0.50
Knox @ Grinnell+4.1-4.152.360%0.50
Wesleyan (CT) @ Hamilton-4.1+4.152.940%0.50
Navy @ Air Force+4.0-4.059.060%0.88
Franklin Pierce @ American International-3.9+3.952.940%0.50
California @ UNLV+3.9-3.951.560%0.66
Mercyhurst @ Long Island+3.9-3.952.560%0.94
West Florida @ Abilene Christian-3.9+3.952.940%0.79
Valparaiso @ Morehead State-3.9+3.952.940%0.51
BYU @ TCU-3.8+3.848.041%0.85
Bowdoin @ Amherst+3.8-3.852.959%0.50
Cincinnati @ Arizona+3.8-3.860.559%0.82
Penn State @ Northwestern-3.8+3.845.541%0.75
Bentley @ Assumption-3.7+3.752.941%0.50
Norfolk State @ Robert Morris+3.7-3.752.959%0.71
Quincy @ McKendree+3.6-3.652.959%0.50
North Greenville @ UNC Pembroke+3.6-3.652.959%0.50
Oregon State @ Colorado State-3.5+3.557.341%0.61
Brown @ Rhode Island+3.4-3.452.958%0.72
UT Permian Basin @ Northeastern State+3.3-3.352.958%0.50
Southern Connecticut State @ Saint Anselm-3.3+3.352.942%0.50
Fayetteville State @ Livingstone-3.2+3.252.942%0.50
Kalamazoo @ Albion+3.2-3.252.958%0.50
Western Colorado @ New Mexico Highlands-3.2+3.252.942%0.50
Ferrum @ Barton+3.2-3.252.658%0.50
Maine Maritime @ Nichols+3.1-3.152.958%0.50
Johns Hopkins @ Dickinson+3.1-3.152.758%0.50
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State-3.1+3.152.942%0.87
Kentucky @ South Carolina+3.1-3.157.158%0.66
Black Hills State @ Colorado School of Mines+3.0-3.052.958%0.50
Eastern New Mexico @ Sul Ross State-2.9+2.952.943%0.50
West Chester @ East Stroudsburg+2.9-2.952.957%0.50
Emory & Henry @ Anderson (SC)+2.8-2.852.957%0.50
Frostburg State @ Concord-2.8+2.851.943%0.50
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech-2.7+2.749.843%0.73
Berry @ Trinity (TX)+2.7-2.752.757%0.50
Union @ Saint Lawrence-2.6+2.652.943%0.50
Simpson (IA) @ Buena Vista-2.6+2.651.744%0.50
Hillsdale @ Lake Erie-2.5+2.552.944%0.50
Michigan @ Minnesota-2.5+2.539.144%0.78
Illinois College @ Luther-2.3+2.352.044%0.50
Texas State @ San Diego State-2.3+2.364.544%0.64
Wisconsin River Falls @ Wisconsin Whitewater-2.2+2.252.945%0.50
Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern-2.1+2.150.945%0.47
Morgan State @ Villanova-2.0+2.052.945%0.76
Tiffin @ Ashland-1.9+1.952.945%0.50
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman-1.9+1.952.945%0.65
Tufts @ Bates+1.8-1.852.955%0.50
Concordia Chicago @ Concordia (WI)-1.8+1.852.846%0.50
Norwich @ WPI-1.7+1.752.946%0.50
Baylor @ Arizona State+1.7-1.745.854%0.77
Central Washington @ Angelo State-1.6+1.652.946%0.50
Army @ Louisiana Tech-1.6+1.653.346%0.60
Gustavus Adolphus @ Carleton-1.5+1.551.546%0.50
Fort Valley State @ Central State+1.5-1.552.654%0.50
Ithaca @ Hobart-1.5+1.552.946%0.50
North Texas @ Tulsa-1.4+1.459.247%0.54
Averett @ Washington and Lee+1.3-1.352.953%0.50
John Carroll @ Washington State Louis+1.3-1.352.953%0.50
Richmond @ Lafayette+1.3-1.352.953%0.81
Carson Newman @ Lenoir Rhyne+1.3-1.352.953%0.50
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina+1.2-1.258.753%0.61
Kean @ Montclair State+1.1-1.152.953%0.50
South Dakota Mines @ Fort Lewis+1.1-1.152.953%0.50
Syracuse @ Connecticut-1.1+1.149.247%0.52
San José State @ Hawai'i+1.1-1.147.453%0.73
Manchester @ Otterbein-1.0+1.052.947%0.50
Wingate @ Catawba+0.9-0.952.852%0.50
West Liberty @ West Virginia State+0.8-0.852.952%0.50
Benedictine (IL) @ Lakeland+0.8-0.852.952%0.50
Colby @ Middlebury-0.8+0.852.748%0.50
Louisville @ NC State+0.7-0.768.052%0.75
California (PA) @ Seton Hill-0.6+0.652.949%0.50
Huntingdon @ Methodist+0.6-0.652.951%0.50
Saint Norbert @ Rockford+0.5-0.552.951%0.50
Western Oregon @ Midwestern State-0.4+0.452.949%0.50
Pacific Lutheran @ Willamette-0.4+0.452.949%0.50
Wheeling @ West Virginia Wesleyan+0.3-0.352.951%0.50
Baldwin Wallace @ Heidelberg+0.3-0.352.951%0.50
Vermont State Castleton @ Rowan-0.2+0.252.949%0.50
Weber State @ Cal Poly-0.1+0.152.950%0.85
Wisconsin La Crosse @ Wisconsin Oshkosh+0.0-0.052.450%0.50